Let there be no mistake, the course set by Putin to invade Ukraine has already cost a year of econoic growth for the Russian economy. Even with the Fox News style of information control he exerts, business people feel the chill and fret for the near future as venture capital and working capital sources dry up along with lucrative prospects. The average Russian households belkieve that the Nation has been attacked by Ukraine, that Ukraine is a surrogate for U.S aggression.- like Fox News here, the propaganda soaks in deeply with little or no opposing view points. They believe that Ukraine downed the MH-17 while trying to shoot down Putin's jet.
Even the Russian FOXXed news will not blunt the impact of losing opportunities to grow new sources of oil and gas. The Russian economy depends on energy exports and weapons sales for much of its sustained vitality. Russian consumers enjoy Western electronics and trendy fashions. Tighter credit will begin to ripple through the economy as higher prices for everything. Putin's domestic popularity will grow until the information cycle begins to sprout some leaks- and in the Internet Age truth has a modern-age persistence.
The other variable Putin has underestimated is the courage of the Ukrainian people. They have a deep history of severe warfare, like much of Eastern Europe they have expereinced war on their home land and patriotism is far more than the empty trituals we often se in the west. Ukrainians are united against Russian aggression, and the conduct of the rebels in the Donetsk region has added fuel to the fire. They pretend there to be a government and carry out police functions including executions without trials. The unhinged, homophobic military leadership there has distinguished itself by rash policies and harsh rule. No mater what they are told by the Russian FOXX, people can see they are not better off because the new rulers speak Russian-- they see the destruction everywhere and little signs of a better way of life.
The Ukrainian people are everything in a sense that the U.S. did not find in Iraq and Afghanistan, a culture willing to make sacrifices to grow a democracy, and a military on the field standing like David against the Russian Goliath- armed with nothing so much as faith.
