In its defense of Ukraine, the Obama Administration demonstrated
a lesson that hopefully will transcend its term and be enrolled as a tool for
future usage. Without firing a bullet, the US
has curtained Russian military ambition in Eastern Europe.
By firing banking and other sanctions, it has had the impact of falling bombs;
the Russian economy has shrunk and its military power has been limited by the suddenly
short arms of its economy.
Ukraine Still Front and Center
Ukraine
has become the apex or fulcrum
issue in US-Russia relations. Russia has made taking Ukraine a
national cause internally, and the costs it pays in economic chaos seems a
worthy sacrifice for national pride. The involvement with ISIS stands on a
different ground, as it may occasion huge numbers of casualties to engage ISIS. Their numbers have swelled with large influxes of
fighters estimated at over 35,000. Reports persist that some of the experienced
fighters joining ISIS are ex-Chechnya freedom
fighters. This indicates that Russia
like the US has created conditions
that feed the ISIS movement.
Syria and Iraq
The Russian role in Syria
and Iraq will be helpful if
it strengthens the fight against ISIS. It will
be harmful if it weakens those governments and makes them dependent on Russia for long-term
security. The argument Putin makes to sustain Assad’s government in Syria is arguable.
The vacuum of a missing government in Syria would be worse than the
existing vacuum of a failed, murderous and corrupt Syrian government. The middle
ground is a bitter pill for US
policy, sustaining Assad is anathema. Replacing Assad seems easier than it is;
the lesson of Saddam and Iraq
is instructive, greater brutality is possible in the vacuum of power.
Prognosis
Among the favorable outcomes would be an
end to the civil war in Syria so that the US
can broker a clear front against ISIS. Russia may be a key player in that
scenario because it has a relationship with Assad and his government. Russia has shown something else, it has no political
restrictions on putting heavy armaments and thousands of troops on the ground
in Syria and Iraq. In the
event of heavy fighting and disadvantageous terrain, the situation could
quickly turn into guerrilla warfare against an enemy that has no physical territory
or structure to defend. Of all of the involved nations, Putin’s Russia might be
the least affected by rising numbers of casualties. The US can lead the diplomatic efforts
and supply large amounts of training assistance, arms, and technological support
like logistics, communications and drone bombers. The situation of US and
Russian military forces cooperating in a field of combat is remarkable, and
holds some potential for good.
