US and Ukraine- Joined at the Apex

In its defense of Ukraine, the Obama Administration demonstrated a lesson that hopefully will transcend its term and be enrolled as a tool for future usage. Without firing a bullet, the US has curtained Russian military ambition in Eastern Europe. By firing banking and other sanctions, it has had the impact of falling bombs; the Russian economy has shrunk and its military power has been limited by the suddenly short arms of its economy.

Ukraine Still Front and Center

Ukraine has become the apex or fulcrum issue in US-Russia relations.  Russia has made taking Ukraine a national cause internally, and the costs it pays in economic chaos seems a worthy sacrifice for national pride. The involvement with ISIS stands on a different ground, as it may occasion huge numbers of casualties to engage ISIS. Their numbers have swelled with large influxes of fighters estimated at over 35,000. Reports persist that some of the experienced fighters joining ISIS are ex-Chechnya freedom fighters. This indicates that Russia like the US has created conditions that feed the ISIS movement.

 Syria and Iraq

The Russian role in Syria and Iraq will be helpful if it strengthens the fight against ISIS. It will be harmful if it weakens those governments and makes them dependent on Russia for long-term security. The argument Putin makes to sustain Assad’s government in Syria is arguable. The vacuum of a missing government in Syria would be worse than the existing vacuum of a failed, murderous and corrupt Syrian government. The middle ground is a bitter pill for US policy, sustaining Assad is anathema. Replacing Assad seems easier than it is; the lesson of Saddam and Iraq is instructive, greater brutality is possible in the vacuum of power.

Prognosis

Among the favorable outcomes would be an end to the civil war in Syria so that the US can broker a clear front against ISIS.  Russia may be a key player in that scenario because it has a relationship with Assad and his government. Russia has shown something else, it has no political restrictions on putting heavy armaments and thousands of troops on the ground in Syria and Iraq. In the event of heavy fighting and disadvantageous terrain, the situation could quickly turn into guerrilla warfare against an enemy that has no physical territory or structure to defend. Of all of the involved nations, Putin’s Russia might be the least affected by rising numbers of casualties. The US can lead the diplomatic efforts and supply large amounts of training assistance, arms, and technological support like logistics, communications and drone bombers. The situation of US and Russian military forces cooperating in a field of combat is remarkable, and holds some potential for good.