Adding Syria to the Russia-Ukraine Mix

Adding Syria to the Russia-Ukraine Mix

The Russian military presence in Syria once again points to the importance of the Obama Administration’s foreign policy initiatives against Russia in response to the Ukraine Invasion. Russia still has a vast investment in its military; it has succeeded in modernizing at least a modest expeditionary force. The economic power to extend the reach of its military has been sharply curtailed by the impact of the Obama and internationally supported economic sanctions. Were it not for the sanctions and the breach of the global rules of law by Putin in the Ukraine, Russia would be cash-strapped by low oil prices, but fully incentivized to exploit geopolitical situations for economic gain.  The venture into Syria shows that they must select opportunities based on loyalties rather than primarily for  gain.

In Syria:  A Russian Military Display

Russian military hardware and tactical coordination is on display in Syria and they have equipped the force with some weapons that would only be useful in a fight with the US and its allies.  To that extent, the entry into Syria is a provocation to the US. The Russians no doubt feel bullied and cowed by the Western reaction to its invasion of its peaceful Ukraine neighbor. Apparently, in international affairs as well as typical childhoods, the bully does not like being bullied.

The Russian weaponry on display in Syria plays well in that limited theater. They fire  long range cruise missiles at will. There is no opposition to Russia in the air, neither ISIS, Al Qaida, the Kurds, nor do the insurgent freedom fighter militias have air power. Russia also gains intimate exposure to the ground conditions and militarily important features of the Syrian infrastructure. This is similar to the deconstruction of Iraq by the US under Bush I and II. By the time of the second invasion, the US knew more about Iraq’s military than did the Iraq command and control structure.

Ukraine is still at the Apex

Russia is in position once again to broker a lasting peace in Syria; just a two years ago they saved Assad by taking his stores of chemical weapons and ending his murderous use of chemical weapons against his people. There is little to indicate that Russia did so for humanitarian reasons, since today they have committed men, money, and materiel to save the Assad regime from the destruction it deserves. The lesson of the US folly in Iraq resonates in this situation;  destroying a government - even a bad government- creates a vacuum that can be exploited by people even worse than Assad.

Although Syria takes the news focus, the apex of US-Russian relations is the Ukraine.  The commitment of the West to those 40 plus million Ukrainians to work with Western governments and economies is a vital, long-term US interest.  That it might also provoke change in Russia so that they too adopt peaceful means of achieving goals has strategic importance.  The intervention in Syria has a military component to be sure. But it also has a strategic importance based in peaceful resolution of conflicts.  The ongoing effort to restore democracy to Syria depends on removing the Assad government. Even for Russia, the political and economic costs of keeping Assad will be prohibitive, and perhaps they- like the US and its allies- are learning that diplomacy can be as effective as a bomb or bullet.