Sharper than a Serpent’s Tooth… (Syria, Russia, and the US)

The Obama Doctrine is in full display against Russia in the international conflict over Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. The international coalition of many barely willing members nonetheless has delivered a blow to Russian economy felt in every sector and a weight that has dragged Russian aggression to a near standstill.  While many in the US conservative wings still trumpet Putin’s instincts and aggressiveness, the result in Syria shows that it takes strength to truly be strong, and that under Putin Russia has fallen from heights he imagined for it. Russia can inject in bursts against selected targets but would be hard pressed to sustain a vigorous level of action against a competitive enemy force.

Putin’s Syria Card

 The hard focus on Syria caused by unfathomable death and destruction caused a tidal wave of forced immigration into Europe. The Russian intervention in Syria came under the guise of attacking DAESH but was always an effort to degrade the military opposition to the Assad Regime.  Assad asked and got more time to recover from the devastation brought on by the US supported opposition and other anti-Assad groups.  The US effort intended a political solution to an unpopular leader who resorted to murderous tactics against his own population. There being no US interest superior to the lives of Syrian population and particularly the vulnerable populations of civilian women and children that fell to Assad regime attacks that included poison gas.

US Policy: Coherence amidst Chaos
The US has maintained a steady and productive course despite the alarming number of players and changes in the field.  Iran was the latest to jump in on the side of Assad’s brutal government; as Russia’s intervention gave Assad new life, Iran offers a path for the future of Assad.  The Iranians can continue Assad’s tyranny. The US sponsored international peace process is the engine for beneficial change for the Syrian people. Many refugees would rather be in Syria and live in a land of stable peace with a democratic form of government.  Russia now realizes this is the affordable option for its interests too. The Russians have military bases and a combat military presence in Syria that they would prefer not to use. They do not seek a conflict with Turkey; they simply cannot be seen to back away from it either.

Russian Influence and Russian Pain

The pain of economic contraction, diminished oil revenues, and the burden of an enormous military budget, has exposed potential weaknesses in the Russian body politic. There are limits to that which Russian citizens will easily endure. The Syria intervention created a new stream of fresh victories which unlike Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk did not come with crippling economic sanctions. Russia has rejoined the privy council of leading world nations that must agree on lasting solutions to geopolitical conflicts. The US, Western Europe, Turkey, and Iran will also play important roles. Syria is the key to Middle East stability and to stopping the advance of DAESH.  While it is true that Russia has secured its military bases in Syria and added a potentially important air base, the costs have stretched its resources beyond a comfortable limit.  If peace talks proceed to the point of resolution, Russia will have to begin again with a new Syrian Leader and an elected Syrian government that will remember how little Russia cared for the loss of Syrian life.