Syria Missile Attack Supports Trump under Russian Control

The brutal dictator Bashar al Assad gassed his own people about two years ago; using internationally forbidden sarin nerve gas, he created a world-wide spectacle of abject cruelty. It was a war crime by one of the world’s most open and notorious war criminals.  The awful spectacle of a government killing women and infants  to get at the opposition pro-democracy groups attracted worldwide attention. In April, 2017 Assad did it again.  In the time between the gassing of innocent Syrians, millions fled his murderous rule and have clogged the refugee system with an unmanageable demand for refuge, food, and safety. The US  government, under President Obama, maintained its opposition to Assad’s government and continued to demand regime change. The policy had to balance to the possible fall of Assad with the imminent movement of ISIS to fill a vast power vacuum in Syria and make it a permanent part of its Caliphate. It is a disturbing reality that behind nearly every foreseeable Syrian scenario for change is the possibility of something even worse than Assad.

Russian Embrace of Assad’s Syrian Tyranny

 During the time between the gassing, Putin and Russia not only maintained their national friendship, Putin even committed his sparse military resources to bomb the pro-democracy opposition. They launched cruise missiles, aerial bombings, and supported Syrian ground troops in combat operations. Of course, this was done under cover of an agreement with the West to fight ISIS.

Trump Embraced Assad and the Illegal Syrian Dictatorship

Trump threw away the idea of regime change- perhaps because it was part of Obama’s Syria Doctrine- and embraced the Syrian Government as if to align with Russia on the subject. We shall call it DAY ONE, when from the State department to the UN, The US government announced that we no longer sought regime change in Syria. This was Putin’s position agreed by few other leaders, and it was a poison antidote to US interests in peace, resettlement of refugees, and regional stability.  DAY ONE was remarkable, astonishing in its suddenness and depth of damage to innocent people in the region.  Day ONE reminded us of the GOP convention when Trump suddenly announced his support for the Russian Occupation of Crimea, its invasion of Ukraine, and the cessation of the Obama sanctions that have savaged the Russian economy.

Why the US Suddenly Opposes its interests?

There is no easy explanation for this polar change on Syria.  The Obama Administration felt the deep frustration of the knot of opposition groups that included ISIS affiliates and other with similar histories. Yet, the embrace of the Assad regime reverses a deeply held US policy to oppose brutal dictators that prey upon the lives of their citizenry. The US has stood for democracy and the basic rights of people everywhere to life without fear of government oppression. It has fueled Americanism and or Pro-democracy foreign policy well before we opposed Hitler and the Nazis that flung the world into war with two hundred million combatants and ended with more than 80 million deaths and the nuclear annihilation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. From the Korean conflict to Vietnam, Pol Pot to Idi Amin, from the Baltic ethnic cleansing to the petty power-mad leaders of Panama and Ukraine, the US has opposed undemocratic governments that make use of deadly force to control their populations. Well, until Trump decided that the US would accept the murder and war crimes of Assad in Syria.

Day TWO, The Assad regime found new support from the US and less to fear in retaliation. No longer worried about sanctions or military countermeasures, Assad launched an attack using the same types of weapons that he had used two years earlier. He launched the gas attack one day after the Trump Administration signaled that it would no longer seek to change the brutal Syrian regime. In essence, they would- like Russia - work with the Syrian government. The following day Assad launched the gas attack.

DAY THREE Trump watched TV and made a statement is  in reaction to the grisly sights that he had been revulsed by the sight of choking infants. Just as in the earlier attacks, Assad used indiscriminate nerve gets in airborne form. Trump behaved as though this was a matter of first impression; the world’s memory was thankfully not as short. Predictably, the gas attacks renewed dread fear among Syria's civilian population, caused horrific physical injury, and indiscriminate death. 

DAY FOUR the US press goes wild in appreciation as missiles flew from US warships and hit the airfield that facilitated the attack. This was not Obama taking out bin Laden, or even Bush sending ICBMs to get Saddam. This was a fake attack.  The enemy got a warning—by the US Military. This demonstration merely blasted cement on an airfield that had been emptied of personnel, planes, equipment.  Given notice of the scheduled action, the Syrians preserved their valuable property and the field was operational about 12 hours after the attack. While the press clippings were still extolling the courage of Trump, the results were a sad spectacle. It demonstrated the high likelihood of Putin’s control over the US government in both its military conduct and foreign policy.

Russia is Complicit

Russian military and economic support have been the linchpin for the survival of the Syrian government. They were in nearly full retreat when Russia entered the war and immediately turned the tide with cruise missiles, bombers, and fighter jets. Russia has stood by ever since providing technical support and military muscle. They have also entered a diplomatic program to resurrect the Syrian government as an alternative to ISIS control over the territory.

Trump is also Complicit

There seems to be no reasonable explanation for the turn of US policy to favor Bashir al Assad We and the rest of the world know this man. He is ruthless, destructive, and locked in a life and death combat with democracy seeking citizens of Syria. By honoring his administration's safe exemption from removal by America’s considerable economic and military means, Trump gave support and license to Assad. Assad acted quickly and lethally, he gave us more choking women and infants. The difference this time is the US President was complicit in the crime. He told Assad that there was less to fear from the US and Assad took bold advantage. If words of a President were to have positive value in Syria, then they would be threats to that criminal enterprise rather than tolerance of it, Putin style.

Complexity that Continues

The US and western allies had already determined that Assad had to go.  The situation was complicated by scores of opposition groups, and a throng of outside supporters including Russia, Iran, and Turkey. President Obama created a situation in which Russia helped remove a part of the Syrian government’s supply of nerve gas. As new developments unfold, the consistent strands remain- Russia offers unwavering support and assistance, Assad continues to kill, terrorize and disband the opposition population- a majority of Syrians. Trump stumbles blindly as if led by the puppet strings. He endorsed Erdogan’s plebiscite to impose a dictatorship in Turkey, a position refused or avoided by the western allies. A day later, Erdogan launched a military strike in Syria. The latest Trump blunder is an attempt to arm, yet somehow limit the impact of arming, the Kurdish resistance. There are military gains in arming the group and risks in the ability to limit the use of those arms. It requires a balance of military and diplomatic advantages which do not currently exist. Yet, the policy proceeds without due consideration.

 Abandoning Global Democracy

When the US Foreign policy erupts from the visceral reactions of a single person and they consistently favor the parties that broke laws to aid his improbable election, there is both smoke and fire. The support and acceptance of Russian theft of land from a sovereign neighbor and fomenting the breakup of that same sovereign neighbor are unthinkable. They are daggers in the heart of US interests and our ongoing efforts to promote democracy and freedom around the world.  The weakening or removing the economic sanctions imposed to punish Russian illegal acts and military aggression follows the same illogical path. None of these things hold to any logic more than that it is an agreement to accept Russian priorities, to do as Russia wishes with US military, economic power, and foreign policy. There are similar signs in the embrace of the rush to dictatorship in Turkey- destabilizing an important NATO ally in the Middle East.

Impossibly Flexible

To say that Trump has changed his military and foreign policies would be a misstatement. It appears he has no military or foreign policy and simply moves to advance personal and group economic agendas that favor huge returns for oil, finance, and the Defense production sector. The strategic choices so far clearly fit within the Russian agenda and fall outside of policies favorable to the US. Flexibility may be a virtue but when one stands by nothing, then is no flexibility. One is a tool of outside interests.

Sources

The NY Times 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/04/world/middleeast/syria-gas-attack.html?_r=0 

News Coverage

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/04/middleeast/idlib-syria-atta

Syrian War Crimes

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/24/world/middleeast/un-syria-war-crimes.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FAssad%2C%20Bashar%20al-&action=click&contentCollection=timestopics&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=8&pgtype=collection

The Washington Post  found hard evidence of possible collusion on the sanctions,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/national-security-adviser-flynn-discussed-sanctions-with-russian-ambassador-despite-denials-officials-say/2017/02/09/f85b29d6-ee11-11e6-b4ff-ac2cf509efe5_story.html?utm_term=.062d3a5fecd8