Saturday, June 3, 2017

Weakening America - One Fake Mistake at a Time

 

Weakening America - One Fake Mistake at a Time


The Trump Administration came to power in large part on the efforts of the Russian government to interfere with the national elections in 2016. Russia openly abetted the Trump campaign and trafficked in stolen intellectual property and hacked private communications. During the campaign and since the inauguration, the Trump administration has engaged in a pattern of government actions that provide advantages to Russia at the expense of US interests and US policy. Trump has weakened the US both at home and abroad, and he has advanced an agenda particularly advantageous to Russia.  He has boosted Putin’s overall efforts to disrupt the Western Democracies and then destabilize and diminish the United States.  Secure in the US cocoon, it is easy to forget there are enemies of Democracy.



“Russia is the only country in the world realistically capable of turning the United States into radioactive ash…” Dmitry Kiselyov




Part 1. Diminishing America on the Global Stage


Trump has done his best to alienate the traditional allies on which the US has depended since the end of WWII. His ham-handed tactics and contradictory messaging reflect a level of ignorance not previously achieved by an American Chief Executive. The effect has been to lower the international stature of the US to a level closer to his own than to the magnificent leadership that preceded him. Western leaders view Trump as unpredictable and unreliable. His tendency to share military secrets with the enemies of the US has alarmed world leaders to the extent that many will no longer share sensitive intelligence with the US.


A.    Destabilizing the NATO Alliance


NATO is a defense organization; it does not make plans or efforts to attack other nations. It has played a vital role in keeping peace in Europe after nearly 40 years of catastrophic conflicts and the introduction of nuclear weapons of mass destruction. The Russian government under Putin views NATO as a threat to its dominance over Eastern Europe. The lure of the strength of Western economies has created deep fissures among the former Soviet Bloc nations. Ukraine was the latest example of a bordering government that attempted to move closer to western style democracy and the robust economies of Central Europe and the European Union. Putin’s Russia views NATO as a military adversary.


Putin’s goal is to weaken the alliance and reduce its influence over the emerging democracies of Eastern Europe. Towards the goal of weakening the alliance, some Russian messages have taken hold in the Trump Administration to belittle NATO and dismiss its importance. The public stance that our vital allied nations have not paid their dues is an example of the fake mistakes that the Administration has advanced to lower NATO in US public opinion. No sane government spends as much as the US on defense, and to expect other nations willingly to waste precious resources on needless and costly weapons is absurd. NATO is strong and vital, and it is financially sound. The repudiation and grossly exaggerated criticism of NATO finances set the stage for reducing public support for US participation in NATO. It sets the stage for achieving Putin’s goal of destabilizing NATO.


B.    International Sanctions


The Obama Doctrine on the annexation of Crimea and invasion of Eastern Ukraine did not use deadly force or engage in hostilities with Russia. Instead, it used banks and narrowly focused economic punishments. Combined with the decline in world oil markets, the Russian economy went into a tailspin from which it has yet to recover.  The unmanageable debt blocks extension of the Russian military.  Deprived of international credit and bank support, the Ruble is pitifully low in value. The Russian people constantly feel the strain of partial economic isolation.


C.    The Invasion of Ukraine


The hostilities in the Donbas region, more particularly in Donetsk and Luhansk, have taken thousands of lives and displaced thousands more. The Russian encroachment is thinly disguised behind the military elements that it supplies with person-power, equipment, and the missiles that destroyed a Dutch passenger airline.  The region has pro-Russian influences that have cultural histories, but more immediately, it reflects the impact of Russian TV and news. The brutality of the fighting has taken its toll on Ukraine yet their spirits, and sense of nationhood remain high and strong. The Ukrainian people thirst for the kind of democracy that used to exist in the US before the GOP gave up on governance and adopted Trumpism.


D.    The Embrace of Syria and Assad


The murderous government of Bashar al-Assad has turned Syria into an abattoir in proportions rarely seen.  He has turned his military on innocent citizens to reduce the nation to those that follow him. The US has consistently condemned Assad’s brutality since he began his desperate fight for survival against forces fighting for democracy in Syria. The Trump Administration mindful of the record of brutality against civilian populations nonetheless decided to announce a form of support for Assad. The Trump Administration decided to announce that they would no longer seek regime change in Syria. This reversed the cornerstone of US and Western policy against Assad- widely regarded as a war criminal and a despot. The day after the UN Ambassador and Administration spokesperson announced the change, Assad unleashed a lethal gas attack on his civilian population. The US responded with a fake missile attack on Syria. With the mistake that the US military announced the attack in advance, the Syrian military avoided any serious damage to their air strike capacity.


E.    Russian Military Aggression


Russian military aggression was abruptly curtailed by the impact of the Obama sanctions. They have been increasingly unable to extend and sustain extension of their military power. In Syria, they experienced a painful loss of an advanced fighter-bomber when shot down by Turkey. Russia backed away from further conflict with Turkey and avoided direct hostilities with the NATO alliance. The Russian military operation in the Syria theater centered around an old aircraft carrier in chronic poor repair. Some part of the military operated smoothly others showed the strain of its poor economic foundation. Russia managed to prop up Assad when he teetered on failure by bombing nearly indiscriminately and providing ground support. 

Putin's true need is to control the US government and its foreign policy. It compensates for the lack of economic power. The stalemate along its borders tends to demonstrate that Russia lacks resources to directly impose its will. In the poor economy, allocating  resources to military usage reduces the quality of life for ordinary citizens.


F.    Russian Nuclear First Strike


Russia has violated the terms of the latest nuclear arms agreements by deploying ballistic missiles in untraceable mobile forms such as rail cars. Instead of renouncing a nuclear first strike, these intermediate range missiles carry nuclear warheads, and Russia can position them at or near the borders of targeted nations. With no time for effective countermeasures, this amounts to an unstoppable first strike. Nations must now reckon their nuclear strategy for offensive first strikes since there is no defense against a mobile-based Russian first strike. This is a destabilizing event of the first order of magnitude.




Part 2. The Domestic Impacts


The Russian agenda needs a weaker US economy and a less cohesive US population. The US economy has shown remarkable strength and resilience during the Obama years. This occurred despite the burn the earth opposition of the Republican-controlled Congress and state governments. They joined to block millions of new jobs and scores of new industries that would have provided vibrant careers for young and retrained workers.


•    Weakening the Government Infrastructure


The US government is a multifaceted and redundant system meant to respond to known and anticipated needs. It does not function like a business that seeks to leech profits from its customer base. The federal government exists to meet needs and provide benefits as enacted by the Congress. The government responds to massive emergencies, researches diseases for cures, plans on ways to avoid hunger, maintain freshwater, and promote clean air. It feeds the needy and houses the homeless, and protects against known and potential threats to public safety. The government has and will continue to be systematically weakened by Trump. Whether by destroying climate data, curtailing medical research, or slashing the needed levels of person power, Trump will savage the government and thereby reduce its ability to respond to vital needs.

  • Waste and Want

Pouring resources into spurious adventures such as the border wall, for which Mexico will clearly not pay, weakens the government’s ability to handle urgent matters. Floods persist and worsen due to climate change and the infrastructure to support flood abatement needs drastic revision and improvement. The electric grid is more vulnerable than in the past due to the increased intensity of storms in recent years. Seasonal storms grow more intense as the global temperatures warm and the lower atmosphere holds more water.


•    Removing Safeguards against Economic Excess


The estate tax affects few taxpayers; most do not have enough wealth to leave to heirs that go beyond the $7.5 million allowed before taxes. A couple could leave $15 million to a designated heir without federal taxation. This is not enough for the few that can gain by abolishing the tax. The tax provides an estimated $275 billion to the US Treasury over a projected decade. These funds go to underprivileged Americans. The power of wealth in a democracy is the subject of another essay and likely a book.  Suffice it say, the circumstance of birth should not be the factor that decides whom shall have the economic power to determine the future of society. 

Healthcare reform is a vehicle for transferring wealth from the middle class to the top one percent. Along the way, more than 20 million Americans will lose health coverage. They will risk shortened lives with far more human suffering than if they had regular medical care.  If the lessons of Trump-ism mean anything, it means that wealth is now a political commodity and the public is at severe risk if wealth and hereditary wealth are  not heavily regulated, taxed to the maximum, and controlled.




•    Reducing Education and Promoting Ignorance


Evidence and truth are keystones of democracy. The free marketplace of ideas is the essential predicate for a civilian population equipped to make decisions about government and policy. The fundamental link between government and the people depend upon truth and the ability to understand facts. Critical thinking whether by training or some profound instinct has been the underpinning of an electorate that has been effective at finding some common semblance of truth in consensus. That element is under assault by the Trump-ism and teeters on the verge of loss. Cutting education and turning over moral guidance to the unkind hands of parents already caught in the web of Trump-spun ignorance furthers the goals of expanding race division, class warfare, and gullibility.


Without an informed electorate, we are doomed to fall over and over for the glib manipulations of Trump and Putin and slick-lies from every side of the meaningful questions of our day.  Today, the call has gone out to Trump-supporters, and the enemy is the Liberal Press.




3. The Real Mistakes Also Add Up


The Paris Climate Control Accord was the leading edge of global cooperation on a massive scale of technology and global management. The problems will be managed through cutting edge technology and technical advances yet to appear. Political, economic and technological leadership opportunities abound in these scenarios. Whether one accepts the settled scientific views that climate change has roots in man-made activity, the ability to control the impact of industrial activity on the delicate membrane of the planet on which we live. Artificial Intelligence may get its first global applications as the permutations of economic growth and pollution reduction gain steam and begin to have economic impacts. The opportunity for a global policy development and enforcement structure to self-police poisoning of air and water deserves the highest priority. It is no less important than air or water to humankind.


Part 3. In Summary


The fake mistakes create a predicate for the public to hold while the hammer drops on the vitality of America. The risks include the national goals of global leadership to promote democracy worldwide. We have but one world to share, and with the power and blessings so fortunately laid upon the US through its remarkable history, come the opportunities to make the word safer, more abundant, more livable, and more just. The pretense of leadership in the Chief Executive would march a great nation into a great retreat from its vast potential for change and good in the world.


The rift between America and its nominal government leadership is a crisis of national consequence, and it is one probably not foreseen by millions of still-shocked citizens. It is here, and it is the new reality.  There is a struggle for the essence of America, and it is for her vital core; it is a battle for her sense of truth and purpose.

Thursday, May 11, 2017

Syria Missile Attack Supports Trump under Russian Control



 Syria Missile Attack Supports Trump under Russian Control


The brutal dictator Bashar al Assad gassed his own people about two years ago; using internationally forbidden sarin nerve gas, he created a world-wide spectacle of abject cruelty. It was a war crime by one of the world’s most open and notorious war criminals.  The awful spectacle of a government killing women and infants  to get at the opposition pro-democracy groups attracted worldwide attention. In April, 2017 Assad did it again.  In the time between the gassing of innocent Syrians, millions fled his murderous rule and have clogged the refugee system with an unmanageable demand for refuge, food, and safety. The US  government, under President Obama, maintained its opposition to Assad’s government and continued to demand regime change. The policy had to balance to the possible fall of Assad with the imminent movement of ISIS to fill a vast power vacuum in Syria and make it a permanent part of its Caliphate. It is a disturbing reality that behind nearly every foreseeable Syrian scenario for change is the possibility of something even worse than Assad.

Russian Embrace of Assad’s Syrian Tyranny

 During the time between the gassing, Putin and Russia not only maintained their national friendship, Putin even committed his sparse military resources to bomb the pro-democracy opposition. They launched cruise missiles, aerial bombings, and supported Syrian ground troops in combat operations. Of course, this was done under cover of an agreement with the West to fight ISIS.

Trump Embraced Assad and the Illegal Syrian Dictatorship

Trump threw away the idea of regime change- perhaps because it was part of Obama’s Syria Doctrine- and embraced the Syrian Government as if to align with Russia on the subject. We shall call it DAY ONE, when from the State department to the UN, The US government announced that we no longer sought regime change in Syria. This was Putin’s position agreed by few other leaders, and it was a poison antidote to US interests in peace, resettlement of refugees, and regional stability.  DAY ONE was remarkable, astonishing in its suddenness and depth of damage to innocent people in the region.  Day ONE reminded us of the GOP convention when Trump suddenly announced his support for the Russian Occupation of Crimea, its invasion of Ukraine, and the cessation of the Obama sanctions that have savaged the Russian economy.

Why the US Suddenly Opposes its interests?

There is no easy explanation for this polar change on Syria.  The Obama Administration felt the deep frustration of the knot of opposition groups that included ISIS affiliates and other with similar histories. Yet, the embrace of the Assad regime reverses a deeply held US policy to oppose brutal dictators that prey upon the lives of their citizenry. The US has stood for democracy and the basic rights of people everywhere to life without fear of government oppression. It has fueled Americanism and or Pro-democracy foreign policy well before we opposed Hitler and the Nazis that flung the world into war with two hundred million combatants and ended with more than 80 million deaths and the nuclear annihilation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. From the Korean conflict to Vietnam, Pol Pot to Idi Amin, from the Baltic ethnic cleansing to the petty power-mad leaders of Panama and Ukraine, the US has opposed undemocratic governments that make use of deadly force to control their populations. Well, until Trump decided that the US would accept the murder and war crimes of Assad in Syria.

Day TWO, The Assad regime found new support from the US and less to fear in retaliation. No longer worried about sanctions or military countermeasures, Assad launched an attack using the same types of weapons that he had used two years earlier. He launched the gas attack one day after the Trump Administration signaled that it would no longer seek to change the brutal Syrian regime. In essence, they would- like Russia - work with the Syrian government. The following day Assad launched the gas attack.

DAY THREE Trump watched TV and made a statement is  in reaction to the grisly sights that he had been revulsed by the sight of choking infants. Just as in the earlier attacks, Assad used indiscriminate nerve gets in airborne form. Trump behaved as though this was a matter of first impression; the world’s memory was thankfully not as short. Predictably, the gas attacks renewed dread fear among Syria's civilian population, caused horrific physical injury, and indiscriminate death. 

DAY FOUR the US press goes wild in appreciation as missiles flew from US warships and hit the airfield that facilitated the attack. This was not Obama taking out bin Laden, or even Bush sending ICBMs to get Saddam. This was a fake attack.  The enemy got a warning—by the US Military. This demonstration merely blasted cement on an airfield that had been emptied of personnel, planes, equipment.  Given notice of the scheduled action, the Syrians preserved their valuable property and the field was operational about 12 hours after the attack. While the press clippings were still extolling the courage of Trump, the results were a sad spectacle. It demonstrated the high likelihood of Putin’s control over the US government in both its military conduct and foreign policy.

Russia is Complicit

Russian military and economic support have been the linchpin for the survival of the Syrian government. They were in nearly full retreat when Russia entered the war and immediately turned the tide with cruise missiles, bombers, and fighter jets. Russia has stood by ever since providing technical support and military muscle. They have also entered a diplomatic program to resurrect the Syrian government as an alternative to ISIS control over the territory.

Trump is also Complicit
There seems to be no reasonable explanation for the turn of US policy to favor Bashir al Assad We and the rest of the world know this man. He is ruthless, destructive, and locked in a life and death combat with democracy seeking citizens of Syria. By honoring his administration's safe exemption from removal by America’s considerable economic and military means, Trump gave support and license to Assad. Assad acted quickly and lethally, he gave us more choking women and infants. The difference this time is the US President was complicit in the crime. He told Assad that there was less to fear from the US and Assad took bold advantage. If words of a President were to have positive value in Syria, then they would be threats to that criminal enterprise rather than tolerance of it, Putin style.

Complexity that Continues

The US and western allies had already determined that Assad had to go.  The situation was complicated by scores of opposition groups, and a throng of outside supporters including Russia, Iran, and Turkey. President Obama created a situation in which Russia helped remove a part of the Syrian government’s supply of nerve gas. As new developments unfold, the consistent strands remain- Russia offers unwavering support and assistance, Assad continues to kill, terrorize and disband the opposition population- a majority of Syrians. Trump stumbles blindly as if led by the puppet strings. He endorsed Erdogan’s plebiscite to impose a dictatorship in Turkey, a position refused or avoided by the western allies. A day later, Erdogan launched a military strike in Syria. The latest Trump blunder is an attempt to arm, yet somehow limit the impact of arming, the Kurdish resistance. There are military gains in arming the group and risks in the ability to limit the use of those arms. It requires a balance of military and diplomatic advantages which do not currently exist. Yet, the policy proceeds without due consideration.

 Abandoning Global Democracy

When the US Foreign policy erupts from the visceral reactions of a single person and they consistently favor the parties that broke laws to aid his improbable election, there is both smoke and fire. The support and acceptance of Russian theft of land from a sovereign neighbor and fomenting the breakup of that same sovereign neighbor are unthinkable. They are daggers in the heart of US interests and our ongoing efforts to promote democracy and freedom around the world.  The weakening or removing the economic sanctions imposed to punish Russian illegal acts and military aggression follows the same illogical path. None of these things hold to any logic more than that it is an agreement to accept Russian priorities, to do as Russia wishes with US military, economic power, and foreign policy. There are similar signs in the embrace of the rush to dictatorship in Turkey- destabilizing an important NATO ally in the Middle East.

Impossibly Flexible

To say that Trump has changed his military and foreign policies would be a misstatement. It appears he has no military or foreign policy and simply moves to advance personal and group economic agendas that favor huge returns for oil, finance, and the Defense production sector. The strategic choices so far clearly fit within the Russian agenda and fall outside of policies favorable to the US. Flexibility may be a virtue but when one stands by nothing, then is no flexibility. One is a tool of outside interests.

Sources

The NY Times 
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/04/world/middleeast/syria-gas-attack.html?_r=0 

News Coverage
http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/04/middleeast/idlib-syria-atta

Syrian War Crimes
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/24/world/middleeast/un-syria-war-crimes.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FAssad%2C%20Bashar%20al-&action=click&contentCollection=timestopics&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=8&pgtype=collection

The Washington Post  found hard evidence of possible collusion on the sanctions,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/national-security-adviser-flynn-discussed-sanctions-with-russian-ambassador-despite-denials-officials-say/2017/02/09/f85b29d6-ee11-11e6-b4ff-ac2cf509efe5_story.html?utm_term=.062d3a5fecd8