New Sanctions Against Russia—a Badly Needed First Step

New Sanctions Against Russia—a Badly Needed First Step

The election of 2016 may be remembered historically for the cyber-attack on US democracy that put at risk America’s venerable political strength and remarkable history of bold leadership. The election of Trump was a function of Russian manipulation of the US electorate.  Trump was not Putin’s preferred candidate for political reasons; he was preferred for global economic, military and strategic reasons. A reasoned set of observations of Trump policies and actions support a finding that he has weakened the US in strategic and important ways. The preliminary conclusion is that these actions have both weakened the US and strongly favored Russia.

Collaboration with the Enemy…

The Trump for President campaign was led for a while by Paul Manafort a former advisor to the deposed President of Ukraine. ( Viktor Yanukovich was- in both Ukrainian and international opinion- a Putin puppet.) The Trump campaign abruptly changed the GOP platform in July 2016 to eliminate the international sanctions against Russia, and to accept the occupation of Crimea. Revelations from intelligence and other sources have outlined a litany of high level contacts between High-level Russian agents and officials and the Trump campaign, transition, and Administration. The Trump parties included the national security advisor, the Attorney General, senior advisor Kushner, and Trump Jr. The record shows an active working relationship between the Russian effort to destabilize the election process and the Trump campaign.

Later, after the inauguration, the Trump Administration abruptly announced acceptance of the murderous Assad Regime in Syria.  Most recently Trump tried to weaken or block Congressional sanctions for Russian interference in the election on Trump’s behalf.  A distinct pattern connects these events of the US making sudden and factually unsupported policy reversals that fit Russian interests and violate US interests in peace, democracy, and international justice. The Russians were not just helping Trump to scold Hilary or to create chaos in US politics—they saw a chance to weaken the strongest nation on earth severely, a precise shot like David and the sling…

A Democracy in Imminent Peril

The Trump approach has been to shamefully discard civil accord and hard-fought US traditions. He wants to rig the next election by suppressing votes from ordinary citizens—veterans, families that sent children to war, all can be suppressed by the voter racial-purity zealots that he has assembled and authorized. The suppression team have begun work with personal track records that put Blacks, Latins, and Democrats in their cross hairs.  Some future historians might note the severity of the risk to Democracy by adding together the below-listed dramatic circumstances.

• ·        Russian influence over the Presidency, and the GOP acquiescence
• ·        Republican majority control of the House and Senate
• ·        Republican control over the Supreme Court
• ·        An unprecedented racial assault on voting rights; and cyber-threats based on
• ·        Gathering all the available voter data into a central and vulnerable depository.

Trashing the Obama Successes

President Barack Obama initiated an international coalition to oppose Russian military aggression in Eastern Europe, Syria, and elsewhere in the world. He created an effective non-military weapon that stopped the Russian invasion of Ukraine and limited its ability to carry out military missions in other theaters of hostilities. The Obama Doctrine used banking systems and precisely drawn economic sanctions that deprived the Russian military of the economic support needed to carry out its vicious military aggression.

Ukraine at the Nexus

The sanctions specifically targeted the oil sector of the Russian economy and punished the violations of international law and national sovereignty in the invasion of Ukraine and annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. The hostilities in DonBas under Russian backing, support, and direction have cost thousands of lives and displaced more than 100,000 persons.

This week, the Congress joined the American people in opposing Russian domination of the US political system. The Congress in sequential actions in the Senate and House has agreed on a package of sanctions against Russia that also include sanctions against Iran and North Korea. 

The End Game in Ukraine

The occupation of Ukraine is an important step for Putin; Ukraine is the largest European nation and it has a vast potential to become a leading economy in Eastern Europe. The end game for Putin in Ukraine is to take it back within Russia’s political and governmental sphere. Following a series of secret meetings between Trump and Vladimir Putin at the recent G-20 Convention, the dots have begun to appear on a plausible forecast for the next stage of Russian aggression in Ukraine.        

-        Dot One-The rebel forces in Donbass region announced the formation of a new Ukraine. They would dissolve the current government of Ukraine and re-establish the traditional little Russia or Malorussiya.

-        Dot Two- Trump stops the Obama sanctions and vetoes the new sanctions.

-        Dot Three-One can foresee a Putin -style referendum focused on RTV viewers and Russian speakers in the East Ukraine and a declaration of independence.

-        Dot Four- Rather than breaking the Ukraine into small pieces, this new potential end game gambit would simply swallow it whole and preserve the population, economy, and infrastructure essentially intact.

An Act of National Submission

The annexation of Ukraine would require submission by the US and an extremely grudging acceptance from central Europe. The plebiscite theory has a surface appearance that can attract the support of Russian allies and those simply unwilling to engage in a resolution that could end in open hostilities and regional warfare.

Putin Trump Secret Meetings…

The Putin-Trump intrigue suggests that Trump might well be willing to surrender Ukraine to Russia under some pretense of correcting relations with Russia. After all, his predecessor brought the Russian economy to its knees in retribution for its illegal conduct.

Playing Progress in Reverse

If the current pattern of reversing the Obama achievements persists, then Trump might logically assume it is time to reward Russia for its criminal conduct. The UN-DO Obama Doctrine has been on display for six months. Surrendering on Ukraine makes about as much sense as destroying Obamacare and leaving 36 million Americans uninsured—Putin might approve of that policy too. So much of Trump's actions since taking office attend Putin’s ultimate goals for weakening America one significant, and chaotic step at a time.

the power of tides

Albert Einstein once stated that: “Problems cannot be solved at the same level of awareness that created them.” He did not speak of global climate change, but I apply his words to it as if it were a problem, created at a particular level of awareness.

Global Climate Change is a problem caused by people who were quite aware of the risks they created. The inventors and manufacturers of gasoline powered engines understood fully. The planned that the air we must breathe was the preferred dumping place for toxic substances and carbon wastes. A lack of understanding existed at the public level when we assumed that a few million cars, buses and trucks would not cause problems; nor would enough coal burning to power our homes and cities. The public surmised that the government would not permit massive activity that caused massive harms, and that traditional methods of food and energy production were safe because they had persisted over many generations.

When evidence mounted, and events began to cause human suffering, the level of public knowledge began to change. A cadre of thinkers who knew the connection between carbon and the atmospheric changes in process began to spread information. The counter arguments have proceeded in a similar direction; far from responsibility, they project blame elsewhere.

The marketplace of ideas has always been a cauldron. Ideas that cause greater life and abundance must compete with those that cause destruction. Human have frequently adopted ideas that caused ruin and suffering. War is an example, and reckless industrial activity is another. That poor ruse “I am not a scientist…” is actually the correct answer. The level of knowledge needed to combat global climate change from human activity is not scientific; rather it is social, it is based on survival and, to succeed, it must come from the roots. The sword and shield of climate change have the same origin. It will rise as a sword to pursue disastrous continuation or as a shield to protect populations from public knowledge. We will ultimately only accept that we, as a body of humanity, voluntarily agree to accept.

The battlefield is a metaphorical Armageddon on the landscape of human thought processes. Forces of annihilation and mercy are at painful odds. The struggle for human souls has a path through the human mind, and it is made of words and thoughts but with the power of tides.

Normalization With Cuba Is The Right Policy

Cuba sits on our southern doorstep, except for the common border countries; it is the most prominent nation in our geographic neighborhood with which we do not have diplomatic and commercial relationships.  We have watched for decades as we deployed our punitive policy against the Dictator Fidel Castro against the Cuban population. Castro’s brutal rule forced millions to flee, and it is for that reason the large Cuban community in the U.S. is largely comprised of people who have been victimized by Castro. History justifies the  Cuban community's deep resentment  but history also supports change. Isolation has not produced progress, and the people of Cuba suffer from our policies that truly are aimed at the political leadership there.

We have people in leadership in the United States who have been as brutal and doctrine driven as Castro. It is not a reach to suggest that an entire generation of Americans has been victimized by U.S. aggression in Iraq. Trillions of dollars wasted, hundreds of thousands of lives lost. Many thousands of American families suffered from the combat causalities there. It was reckless and misguided; it was brutal in its impact. The semblance of society that remains in Iraq is a sad tribute to the destruction of war.  There must be better ways to remove a few criminal dictators, and to provide free choice for a population. If there are, then they must begin with engagement.

Normalization Will Boost The U.S Economy
Opening travel and trade with Cuba will boost the U.S. economy. It will perhaps reduce one additional source of trade for the sanctioned Russian government. It will provide opportunities for cultural and educational enrichment for both nations. And it will improve economic opportunity for the current generations of Cuban people who have done nothing to deserve  international isolation.  Punishing the people for the perceived misdeeds of an autocratic government makes little sense. The Cuban people- by our theory of the world- are political captives.

Republican Critics Have a Reflex and No Reason
By all accounts, the Republican party leaders will condemn the policy because it is the Obama policy. They will ignore the President’s splendid role, and historic achievements  as the leader of Western Democracy and claim he has weakened the U.S. by dealing with a dictator.  These same people have promoted Putin’s war in Eastern Europe; soft-pedaled Bin Laden and Al Qaeda, and played politics with ISIL while they cut a swath of terror in the Middle East. They have, thus far, failed to advance a legislative policy to contain the global threat of an oil-rich ISIL. There is little reason to pay attention to them. To assert that they care for the poor in Cuba is clouded by the way they treat the poor in America. It is as if they forget, in the global stage, you are what you do, and not what you say.

U.S. Cubans Can Make a Difference
The Cuban ex-patriot community has skin n the game. They have family ties, cultural roots, and ultimately a love of their native country. Engagement will be an opportunity to reach the Cuban community and foster ideals that can bring change. Opening relations with Cuba is an opportunity for involvement and the Cuban American community, there is no group better positioned to influence democracy in Cuba.

FREEFALLING…Putin Style (Opinion)

The rouble has crashed, it has fallen to 80 then resuscitated to 70 to one dollar. The Russian government is unable to support the currency.   People rush to dump roubles and salvage goods for them as best they can. Rising interest rates seem to have failed to stabilize banks or the currency. While not admitting a financial panic, watching local behavior, the conclusion is hard to avoid. People are urgently trying to maintain themselves while the currency loses value before their eyes.

This is the true price of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, it is a price paid by the average Russian citizen, their pensions and salaries becoming more and more meaningless as the consumerism they have grown to cherish is pushed further away from their reach. The people have been told by their leaders and the state-controlled media that the economy has been attacked by the West, and that they will prevail by being morally strong. The call to patriotism and pride resonates with the common people; they believe they will defeat the West. Some stories are heart warming reminders that people will find silver linings no matter how foolhardy their leader’s behaviors might be.  

Oil Prices Continue the Slide

The Russian plans for $95 per barrel benchmark prices have been buried beneath a gusher of U.S. oil production. Oil shale projects with low interest financing have proven influential and persistent despite low market prices. As benchmarks fall below $60, there are few signs of falling U.S. production, and the world still has an oversupply of crude. The ironies are not lost here. It resembles a Russian tragedy of its ages, and played out many times before. Whether by Czarists aristocrats, class and privilege conscious communists, or as now, billionaire oligarchs, the common people find the reasons to go on believing. They buy into a dream that they will never share, or, perhaps as in America, the poor feel it is their role- to be loyal to the rich. While appealing to patriotism, It appears that much of the international aggression is aimed at creating greater luxuries for the oligarchs.

The motto emblazoned across this prow of this sinking ship is that:  the Crimea is ours…. This is little comfort to the growing bottom economic layer where inflation and a crashed currency have made comfort less obtainable. It is not a substitute for the middle class preferences that keep them preoccupied with personal progress, it is not a substitute for the capital flight from Russia as investors have withheld or withdrawn nearly a trillion dollars in investment capacity from the Russian economy since the invasion of Ukraine. While Putin makes news by elaborate gestures to Turkey, China, and India this path to diversification is characterized by weakness and desperation. It is not the high-tech super warship cancelled by France, or the elaborate gas pipeline into central Europe.  All over the world, fast money moves are building new Russia-free linkages, and this is the true damage brought by Putin, he has set Russia on a path of isolation as the global economy grows exponentially around his military aggression.

The Powers of Political Media

Like the United States, Russia has a propaganda machine that feeds a constant stream of counter-reality to its people. In the United States for example, they were fed a multi-billion dollar deluge of ant-Obama, ISIS, and Ebola.  Many believed that the U.S. was under siege by Obama, ISIS and a flood of immigrants from Latin America, who also carried ISIS and Ebola.  The hysteria worked and despite a booming economy and amid excellent signs of economic recovery, the American people recently voted a radical, pro-corporate government into place that is determined to depress the middle-class. There is a similar dynamic in Russia, where news media have created a narrative that holds Obama to blame for Putin’s aggressions. While Putin may be building seaside resorts for his rich allies, the average Russian believes they are in a Holy test of will and patriotism.  The problem in both the U.S. and Russia is simply this, under media influence people support political causes that will limit progress and do permanent damage to their future prospects.

Sanctions Accelerate Damage

The world owes a debt of gratitude to President Obama’s leadership on Ukraine sanctions. The Obama response to the invasion of Ukraine marks a noticeable first: oil is not a fuel for military aggression.  The oil-money powered Russian military has not achieved its objectives so far. The simple and easy conquest of Ukraine has brought instead an economic maelstrom.  War is a failure of reason; historically, it has been a tool of base convenience and essential evil.  Sanctions are an effort to bring about reason, debate, and positive change. In Russia, there is a gravity–defying syndrome of patriotism and bravery in the face of growing economic chaos. The people, their hopes and political will, all committed to keeping the society moving forward. However, like any objects spinning in air, there is a good chance that, in the end, gravity will prevail.

In Malaysia MH-17- The world Sees Itself

 New economic sanctions from the United States will have damaging effects on the Russian economy and its key energy sector.  They were not applied in response to the attack on the Malaysia Flight MH-17, but by the coincidence of events occurred on the same day. The world's nations consider the attack on the Malaysia aircraft  as an attack upon the rest of the world, and treating all as enemies in all-out combat. With the same non-existent justification as the attacks on Ukraine, Malaysia and the entire world now can feel as Ukraine does, as a victim of savage aggression.

There are events, which by the sheer horror and savagery, force the world's attention on a time, place, and people. Russia has once again found this scornful glare of the world's vision and its contempt. The murders of nearly 300 air passengers over Ukraine has focused the world's judgment on the ruthless and vicious assault by Russia on the Ukraine .  Deliberately taking lives of innocent passersby - women, children, and infants  from many other parts of the world has done this. Simply creating an hysterical atmosphere and a zone of hostilities is not a justification for visiting  the excesses of war on innocent and uninvolved citizens of the world. Operating  a passenger aircraft in international airspace is not a provocation to any responsible State or military.

The mission of a few hired mercenaries in Eastern Ukraine has no valid purpose there, or anywhere, among civilized societies. The softness of the resistance to the Invasion of Crimea and the efforts to foment war with Ukraine have hardened into a firmer resolve. It is now clear that Russia is willing to unleash destruction on every other Nation simply to satisfy a whim for conquest of Ukraine- its weak and un-offending neighbor.

Now as Russia presses deadly hostilities on Ukraine, and recklessly upon every other nation, Western nations will have enormous pressures from domestic constituencies. There is a world-wide will to punish the ruthlessness of Putin's Government. Sanctions that have begin to isolate the regime and its economy.   Western efforts will expand to efforts to dissuade China and others from aiding Russia until it rejoins the circle of civility. Until it renounces killing as a means of achieving its goals, and until its goals conform with international rights and obligations.

Inside Ukraine- A Testing Time

The remnants of the Russian offensive inside Ukraine have maintained the offensive with goals of establishing a predicate for formal declaration of hostilities. In the Eastern region, Ukraine President  Petro Poroshenko has ordered military action to defend Ukraine territory and population. This is a testing time; the original goal of the rebellion was to present an image of endangered pro-Russian population groups in Ukraine that require rescue.

Ukraine is not accustomed to war, it has been a big part of their history but they are not like the U.S. Russia or most NATO countries- with tested military machines.  Ukrainian culture is rich in values but little to do with warfare. They are among the more vulnerable countries to an armed insurgency. The entire governmental ordeal from the demonstrations and fighting in Euro Maiden to the present has increased patriotic feelings in Ukraine, they will not lack for heroism and effort to defend themselves. But they do lack a cadre of tested war veterans, and a track record of military actions.

Through all, President Putin has remained in a low profile, and the situation presents  an opportunity which may be beyond his ambition but within his abilities. Putin can join President Obama and stand as a leader, not only of a great nation, also of humanity. He can lead the world into an era of peace and cooperation.  Russia like the U.S has a group of influential men intent on war, and invested in the profits of global conflict. However, like the U.S., it has a leadership structure which invests strategic military policy in one person-- a President.  Putin has an opportunity to compete for preeminence on the world stage that matters most, the path to Global peace. He can lead the Russian people inside Ukraine on a constructive path of power sharing and democratic processes.

This is the shape of the world when we all grow-up. Where we seek opportunities for embracing the value of life. It is a stage when we accept the blessing of life and agree it is the most valuable thing on Earth.

Adaptation

The rapid adaptation to the Internet and the Smartphone has been demonstrated an advanced capacity for human adaptation.  Consider the small time periods involved for the development of the Internet. During the Clinton presidency, VP Al Gore headed a government task force to refine the concept, structure of the Information Super Highway. This was in about 1996. Here, in 2014, the internet has become a staple of business and social communication. It has been woven into the fabric of everyday life on a global basis. Similarly, the Smartphone, essentially introduced to mass markets in about 1997 although IBM’s Simon came in about 1992. Either way the adaptation has been incredible, there were 400,000 in 2010 and 900,000 in 2013, now more than 1 billion Smartphones in the world. Globally there are more than 5 billion mobile phones, of which 1.080 billion are Smartphones. This means that from 1997 when Kyocera went to a mass-market device to now. Some 17 years, we have added a billion Smartphones, 4 billion other mobile phones that can communicate and perform work through the internet.

Technology is not Adaptation—oh really?

Since the advent of man made fire, technology has been things that change and improve life, enhance chance of survival and in some form add to security and prosperity, human abundance. Since the Internet substantially affects most jobs and businesses in the US, Europe, and Asia, and soon will be the case in Africa; a case can be made that it has bee integrated into human survival. Would humans survive without them? Well yes, but that would be true of everything except food, air, and water. Necessities come from economic activity, which by working on the Net and accessing it by mobile device, qualify these adaptations as survival mechanisms.  Food and water production have become dependent upon the Internet. Increasingly, reliance has become so thorough that without them, life would be severely degraded and there would indeed be casualties.

Advanced Adaptation Will Be Needed For Survival

Climate changes, political and military aggressions, shortages of energy, all have begun to have global connectivity. Adaptation on massive scales and in short periods will be necessary. A world-wide system for dispute resolution is need3ed to avoid human decimation by war, disease, and famine. The world is on the verge of catastrophic levels of conflict now in Koreas, Israel, and now Ukraine.

Energy production has reached a stage of direct poisoning of air and water not seen since the industrial era- fracking will continue to take lives, research has shown nuclear power contaminates air and water with its wastes, as well as accidents - Fukishima radiation has crossed the Pacific from Japan to California. Rising sea levels and weather changes have begun to reshape human habitats and food supplies.