Ukraine: Still at the Apex

Ukraine is still the epicenter of US International policy- the US appears tethered to Russia’s goals for global domination

From Crimea to North Korean Missiles

The Obama sanctions against Russia countered the bald aggression Putin’s government showed when invading Ukraine, fomenting civil war in the Don Bas region, and annexing the Crimean Peninsula. Russian military aggression depends on the banking and finance that make its government run, and the Obama sanctions put a devastating hole in the Russian economy.  

 At the height of the effects of the global oil crash and the sanctions, the Rouble fell to all-time lows. The military machine ground to a slow and halting state,  and the Russian population suffered severe disruptions and substantial deprivations.

In summer of 2017, the US Congress voted to extend sanctions and increased the severity of them in response to intelligence agency findings that Russia interfered with the national elections in November, 2016. The Trump administration opposed the sanctions and worked in the legislative buildup to reduce or eliminate them. There was no explanation for that strategy in the face of universal agreement from US and allied intelligence of the Russian election cyberwarfare. The Congress voted overwhelmingly to extend sanctions and impose additional costs; thus far, the Trump Administration has not acted as needed to carry them out.

Ukraine and Russia deja vu

In Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine- a very nice city that I have visited and enjoyed- there is a mammoth government installation. It takes considerable time just to drive past it. As the walled areas make it difficult to grasp the scale of the place, it is the plant where generations of Soviet missiles and rockets were developed, designed, and constructed. 

Recently, North Korea made some surprising advances in rocketry- a new design and remarkably advance capabilities. North Korea can launch and effectively strike targets as far away as the continental United States The sudden advance?  Yes, they apparently came from models developed for Russia in the Ukraine, and in the sprawling facility in Dnipro. How they became property of the North Korean Dictator is as at yet unsolved mystery. Again, Ukraine and Russia at the center of US international policy.

The Pattern of Serving Russian Goals

In July 2016, there was a mysterious action taken at the GOP convention; an abrupt change in policy in the Platform to stop the sanctions, reduce participation in NATO, and accept the Russian Occupation of Crimea and the elections thereafter which international agencies have condemned as illegitimate.

The Russia investigations in the House and Senate each seek to establish whether there was some form of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian leadership as the quid pro quo for Russia’s successful efforts to influence key parts of the US electorate.

Iran, Syria, and Russia

Again, the sanctions and the tilt towards doing Russia’s bidding occurs at the fulcrum of the most difficult international challenges.  In the spring of 2017, the Administration abruptly announced it would no longer seek regime change in Syria- consistent with Russia policy. A few days later, Assad gassed his own people again. The following day, the US advised Russia it would make a symbolic missile strike on a Syrian base. The TV cameras covered the missiles, and Syria moved its equipment in advance of the attack and sustained no damage or reduction of its ability to carry out attacks. 

Today, the US will begin to dismantle the Iran nuclear agreement. The refusal to certify Iran's compliance could free Iran's government to develop its nuclear program as well as continue its support of Assad in Syria. The US foreign policy continues to  align and contour itself to support Russian objectives and to do so when and if they damage US policies and traditional principles.

The word of a nation is important in its conduct of international relations. Ultimately, we would like to negotiate a nuclear deal with North Korea that could advance their stagnant and under served economy , improve the level of living there , and move them closer to normal relationships with other regional powers. Such agreements depend on the trust that other nations have in US commitments. 

The current administration as removed any semblance of trust or confidence in US policy or commitments. The chaotic messages come from Tweets, ill-advised public papers, news leaks, and public statements that often defy understanding. The confluence of these behaviors weakens America, diminishes our role in international events, and makes us increasingly subservient to Russian interests.  It is an odd pairing with an admitted enemy that currently points thousands of tons of nuclear explosives at us.

New Sanctions Against Russia—a Badly Needed First Step

New Sanctions Against Russia—a Badly Needed First Step

The election of 2016 may be remembered historically for the cyber-attack on US democracy that put at risk America’s venerable political strength and remarkable history of bold leadership. The election of Trump was a function of Russian manipulation of the US electorate.  Trump was not Putin’s preferred candidate for political reasons; he was preferred for global economic, military and strategic reasons. A reasoned set of observations of Trump policies and actions support a finding that he has weakened the US in strategic and important ways. The preliminary conclusion is that these actions have both weakened the US and strongly favored Russia.

Collaboration with the Enemy…

The Trump for President campaign was led for a while by Paul Manafort a former advisor to the deposed President of Ukraine. ( Viktor Yanukovich was- in both Ukrainian and international opinion- a Putin puppet.) The Trump campaign abruptly changed the GOP platform in July 2016 to eliminate the international sanctions against Russia, and to accept the occupation of Crimea. Revelations from intelligence and other sources have outlined a litany of high level contacts between High-level Russian agents and officials and the Trump campaign, transition, and Administration. The Trump parties included the national security advisor, the Attorney General, senior advisor Kushner, and Trump Jr. The record shows an active working relationship between the Russian effort to destabilize the election process and the Trump campaign.

Later, after the inauguration, the Trump Administration abruptly announced acceptance of the murderous Assad Regime in Syria.  Most recently Trump tried to weaken or block Congressional sanctions for Russian interference in the election on Trump’s behalf.  A distinct pattern connects these events of the US making sudden and factually unsupported policy reversals that fit Russian interests and violate US interests in peace, democracy, and international justice. The Russians were not just helping Trump to scold Hilary or to create chaos in US politics—they saw a chance to weaken the strongest nation on earth severely, a precise shot like David and the sling…

A Democracy in Imminent Peril

The Trump approach has been to shamefully discard civil accord and hard-fought US traditions. He wants to rig the next election by suppressing votes from ordinary citizens—veterans, families that sent children to war, all can be suppressed by the voter racial-purity zealots that he has assembled and authorized. The suppression team have begun work with personal track records that put Blacks, Latins, and Democrats in their cross hairs.  Some future historians might note the severity of the risk to Democracy by adding together the below-listed dramatic circumstances.

• ·        Russian influence over the Presidency, and the GOP acquiescence
• ·        Republican majority control of the House and Senate
• ·        Republican control over the Supreme Court
• ·        An unprecedented racial assault on voting rights; and cyber-threats based on
• ·        Gathering all the available voter data into a central and vulnerable depository.

Trashing the Obama Successes

President Barack Obama initiated an international coalition to oppose Russian military aggression in Eastern Europe, Syria, and elsewhere in the world. He created an effective non-military weapon that stopped the Russian invasion of Ukraine and limited its ability to carry out military missions in other theaters of hostilities. The Obama Doctrine used banking systems and precisely drawn economic sanctions that deprived the Russian military of the economic support needed to carry out its vicious military aggression.

Ukraine at the Nexus

The sanctions specifically targeted the oil sector of the Russian economy and punished the violations of international law and national sovereignty in the invasion of Ukraine and annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. The hostilities in DonBas under Russian backing, support, and direction have cost thousands of lives and displaced more than 100,000 persons.

This week, the Congress joined the American people in opposing Russian domination of the US political system. The Congress in sequential actions in the Senate and House has agreed on a package of sanctions against Russia that also include sanctions against Iran and North Korea. 

The End Game in Ukraine

The occupation of Ukraine is an important step for Putin; Ukraine is the largest European nation and it has a vast potential to become a leading economy in Eastern Europe. The end game for Putin in Ukraine is to take it back within Russia’s political and governmental sphere. Following a series of secret meetings between Trump and Vladimir Putin at the recent G-20 Convention, the dots have begun to appear on a plausible forecast for the next stage of Russian aggression in Ukraine.        

-        Dot One-The rebel forces in Donbass region announced the formation of a new Ukraine. They would dissolve the current government of Ukraine and re-establish the traditional little Russia or Malorussiya.

-        Dot Two- Trump stops the Obama sanctions and vetoes the new sanctions.

-        Dot Three-One can foresee a Putin -style referendum focused on RTV viewers and Russian speakers in the East Ukraine and a declaration of independence.

-        Dot Four- Rather than breaking the Ukraine into small pieces, this new potential end game gambit would simply swallow it whole and preserve the population, economy, and infrastructure essentially intact.

An Act of National Submission

The annexation of Ukraine would require submission by the US and an extremely grudging acceptance from central Europe. The plebiscite theory has a surface appearance that can attract the support of Russian allies and those simply unwilling to engage in a resolution that could end in open hostilities and regional warfare.

Putin Trump Secret Meetings…

The Putin-Trump intrigue suggests that Trump might well be willing to surrender Ukraine to Russia under some pretense of correcting relations with Russia. After all, his predecessor brought the Russian economy to its knees in retribution for its illegal conduct.

Playing Progress in Reverse

If the current pattern of reversing the Obama achievements persists, then Trump might logically assume it is time to reward Russia for its criminal conduct. The UN-DO Obama Doctrine has been on display for six months. Surrendering on Ukraine makes about as much sense as destroying Obamacare and leaving 36 million Americans uninsured—Putin might approve of that policy too. So much of Trump's actions since taking office attend Putin’s ultimate goals for weakening America one significant, and chaotic step at a time.

In Malaysia MH-17- The world Sees Itself

 New economic sanctions from the United States will have damaging effects on the Russian economy and its key energy sector.  They were not applied in response to the attack on the Malaysia Flight MH-17, but by the coincidence of events occurred on the same day. The world's nations consider the attack on the Malaysia aircraft  as an attack upon the rest of the world, and treating all as enemies in all-out combat. With the same non-existent justification as the attacks on Ukraine, Malaysia and the entire world now can feel as Ukraine does, as a victim of savage aggression.

There are events, which by the sheer horror and savagery, force the world's attention on a time, place, and people. Russia has once again found this scornful glare of the world's vision and its contempt. The murders of nearly 300 air passengers over Ukraine has focused the world's judgment on the ruthless and vicious assault by Russia on the Ukraine .  Deliberately taking lives of innocent passersby - women, children, and infants  from many other parts of the world has done this. Simply creating an hysterical atmosphere and a zone of hostilities is not a justification for visiting  the excesses of war on innocent and uninvolved citizens of the world. Operating  a passenger aircraft in international airspace is not a provocation to any responsible State or military.

The mission of a few hired mercenaries in Eastern Ukraine has no valid purpose there, or anywhere, among civilized societies. The softness of the resistance to the Invasion of Crimea and the efforts to foment war with Ukraine have hardened into a firmer resolve. It is now clear that Russia is willing to unleash destruction on every other Nation simply to satisfy a whim for conquest of Ukraine- its weak and un-offending neighbor.

Now as Russia presses deadly hostilities on Ukraine, and recklessly upon every other nation, Western nations will have enormous pressures from domestic constituencies. There is a world-wide will to punish the ruthlessness of Putin's Government. Sanctions that have begin to isolate the regime and its economy.   Western efforts will expand to efforts to dissuade China and others from aiding Russia until it rejoins the circle of civility. Until it renounces killing as a means of achieving its goals, and until its goals conform with international rights and obligations.

Inside Ukraine- A Testing Time

The remnants of the Russian offensive inside Ukraine have maintained the offensive with goals of establishing a predicate for formal declaration of hostilities. In the Eastern region, Ukraine President  Petro Poroshenko has ordered military action to defend Ukraine territory and population. This is a testing time; the original goal of the rebellion was to present an image of endangered pro-Russian population groups in Ukraine that require rescue.

Ukraine is not accustomed to war, it has been a big part of their history but they are not like the U.S. Russia or most NATO countries- with tested military machines.  Ukrainian culture is rich in values but little to do with warfare. They are among the more vulnerable countries to an armed insurgency. The entire governmental ordeal from the demonstrations and fighting in Euro Maiden to the present has increased patriotic feelings in Ukraine, they will not lack for heroism and effort to defend themselves. But they do lack a cadre of tested war veterans, and a track record of military actions.

Through all, President Putin has remained in a low profile, and the situation presents  an opportunity which may be beyond his ambition but within his abilities. Putin can join President Obama and stand as a leader, not only of a great nation, also of humanity. He can lead the world into an era of peace and cooperation.  Russia like the U.S has a group of influential men intent on war, and invested in the profits of global conflict. However, like the U.S., it has a leadership structure which invests strategic military policy in one person-- a President.  Putin has an opportunity to compete for preeminence on the world stage that matters most, the path to Global peace. He can lead the Russian people inside Ukraine on a constructive path of power sharing and democratic processes.

This is the shape of the world when we all grow-up. Where we seek opportunities for embracing the value of life. It is a stage when we accept the blessing of life and agree it is the most valuable thing on Earth.

Obama Doctrine- International Conflict Management

In the crosscurrents of news coverage, there are important events that go overlooked and false events that appear real and far more important than they are. The Russian invasion of Ukraine after the the fall of the Russian puppet Victor Yanukovich was a real event. Russia moved to swallow-up an important, burgeoning Democracy. It invaded the Crimea, ran phoney elections, annexed the Peninsula, and began a military buildup to invade the rest of Ukraine. The world stood by without armed resistance, however, under the leadership of Barack Obama, began a remarkable battle plan to stop and reverse a brutal conquest. This strategic rather than military initiative opens an intriguing possibility,  that after thousands of years, people have begun to use rational processes to resolve conflict rather than brute force and killing.

War Is Simply Too Much
For any circumstance, except to repel an armed invasion, war is a poor weapon. It is meant  to achieve one objective: killing indiscriminately and in large numbers.  It is too broad; it is a blunderbuss when one needs a laser point.  In Iraq, for example, the phrase collateral damage became a heartless euphemism for destruction of innocent human life.  Collateral circumstances arose in the form of civil war and incredibly vicious sectarian attacks. Minimal estimates declare more than 100,000 perished in the civil conflicts.

Among recent examples of U.S. resistance to aggression, war has been selectively used and essentially politically motivated. Iraq was initiated for profiteering and oil, and  Afghanistan,the longest U.S. war. carried out as an appearance, a feigned pursuit of Osama Bin Laden.  The U.S. invaded Iraq and poised itself to obtain vast amounts of oil reserves. The premise for the invasion was a false claim of self defense.  The Bush Doctrine  justified use of extreme force against any threat, real or imagined. While Iraq at the time was under intensive U.S. military monitoring, and had no ability to effect an attack on the U.S.; we perceived a threat. Despite the weight of reality, the U.S. leadership under George Bush initiated an invasion, toppled the Saddam regime, which led to a decade of bloody civil war. The U.S. lost nearly 5,000 dead and spent more than $2 Trillion dollars.

Iraq Is Evidence: War Solves Little
In the past weeks, we have seen the Iraq government fold under a relatively mild assault from a small band of insurgents. ISIS have been able to capture broad swaths of Iraq territory, major cities, and oil fields. It is an insurgent force that, while greatly outnumbered by Iraqi military resources, has essentially met little to no opposition. Iraqi military have surrendered the field and turned over vast amounts of arms and equipment to the insurgents. The U.S. war in Iraq ended with a apparently stable Iraq and a government which sought no further U.S. military assistance. After our military separation, poor management and divisive politics have produced a crippled State that cannot police its borders nor defend its people and resources. The use of U.S. overwhelming military force by the Bush Administration destroyed the balance of social and political factors that made Iraq a cohesive state, it now founders and can easily fall into radical control that will further destabilize an entire region.

War Is a Failure of Reason
The invasion of Ukraine once again highlighted the gross folly of warfare. The precipitous invasion threatened to immerse all of Europe in a bloodbath for reasons of personal vanity or mere political advantage. However, the military and diplomatic crises in Ukraine offered new opportunities to employ a modern age set of principles and strategies. It would be a battle of banks and privileges, an economic counter-attack to a brutal use of military force.It was bold and brilliant. This strategy used weapons that pierced deeply into the fragile shell of Russia, namely, its weak and needy economy.  Run by oligarchs in key sectors, the Russian economy was interconnected with dependencies in Central Europe and to varying degrees much of the rest of the world. Using this new, policy-warfare, the allied West made piercing strikes into parts of the economic body of Russia that were vital and vulnerable.

It consisted of precision movements: a strike into the oil sector, a dramatic loss of equity in the Russian stock market, denial of international monetary and credit privileges for key Russian Banks, personal restrictions on economic access and travel for key players in the Putin Regime. A strategic boycott of an annual economic development summit deprived the Russian economy of its Black Friday - when so many large international transactions were usually consummated that the balance of the year was in the black. The results of the economic sanctions, joined by a solid alliance of Western Europe have been devastating to Russia. While not harmful to its average citizens, it was devastating to the national programs for economic growth. The power of the approach was always that there was a next, more severe, level, and that the pressures and deprivations would inexorably increase.

The Obama Doctrine- Punish Aggression with Precision
The selective use of force as secondary to diplomatic and economic measures can be called the Obama Doctrine. In it evolution, it has ushered-in a new possibility for managing conflict. It offers a potential for  rationalizing much of the world's conflicts to avoid armed confrontation.  Those nations which are invested in the global economy can no longer afford to pause for intervals of warfare.  The U.S. experience has shown those who will learn, that war is impossibly expensive and largely un-winnable.  We have Afghanistan and Iraq to offer as cases in support of the cautionary message of modern history. War is only profitable to the war machine, and they have learned to profit from not fighting as much as fighting.  The F-35 fighter at $125 million per plane is the current U.S. answer to ghosts of terrorists with box cutters and plane tickets. Somehow, the math does not favor us, and we still spend more than the next 10 nations combined in defense.

Stepping Back From The Brink
Share the perspective of a Ukrainian citizen watching as the Nation fell into a leaderless state through the demonstrations and bloodshed in Euro Maiden in Kyev, then to the menace of Russian Invasion. With the loss of Crimea and city after city Russian thugs fomenting civil uprisings, the military buildup on the borders clearly indicated imminent invasion and war with Russia. They knew the West wanted a deeper relationship but they also knew the West would not send troops and initiate a land war with Russia. In City after city, paramilitary groups took action and there seemed no escape from the inevitable- bloodshed and conquest. Obama began his leadership with powerful sanctions, few believed it could stop the onslaught and as sanctions took hold and increased, the curious present state began to form. Russia stopped, then pulled back; as the united block of U.S. and Western Europe tightened the screws on the Russian economy. There was a growing realization, Ukraine does not stand alone. Following new national elections, resumption of political and diplomatic relations with Russia and the West. Ukraine has achieve political stability and the elusive trade agreement with the West.

 A Delicate But Hopeful Balance
The Ukraine now sits in a delicate balance, there are still elements of the Russian subterfuge, still hostilities and remnants of the Russian takeover.  Crimea has been lost for the time being and its future is still a target of ongoing sanctions. Moldova and Georgia have joined with Ukraine in opening trade to the West, and  the Eastern European region  generally braces for economic and social change, not all of which is welcome. Inside Ukraine, there are pockets of peace and unrest. The still young movement towards greater democracy still requires nourishment and care. A nation must build democratic infrastructure; it must find its many voices of democratic communication.

A Small Step For A Nation, A Giant Leap For Mankind
Someday when the U.S. recovers from a drunken madness of right-wing-delirium about guns and bloodshed, we may look back with a distinct sense of pride and accomplishment. The small step towards alternatives to mass slaughter, in an age in which we reached a peak in the ability to inflict death and destruction, was truly amazing. The U.S. has stopped abruptly from an inertia of multiple fronts of war on an on-going basis.  We moved from an unlimited commitment essentially to fight every hostile nation in the middle-east, Asia, South America, and Africa and moved instead onto a path of non-lethal warfare and  peace. We can pursue conflict resolution without military means.

To be sure, the bristling level of armaments of the U.S. military are an essential part of diplomacy. But one cannot be blind to the fact that military strength does not stop every attack, and war does not solve the problems that give rise to conflict.There is more hope for the future when mankind can devote resources to solving common problems that threaten the global future well-being rather than engaging in warfare and destruction of life.