Ukraine: Still at the Apex

Ukraine is still the epicenter of US International policy- the US appears tethered to Russia’s goals for global domination

From Crimea to North Korean Missiles

The Obama sanctions against Russia countered the bald aggression Putin’s government showed when invading Ukraine, fomenting civil war in the Don Bas region, and annexing the Crimean Peninsula. Russian military aggression depends on the banking and finance that make its government run, and the Obama sanctions put a devastating hole in the Russian economy.  

 At the height of the effects of the global oil crash and the sanctions, the Rouble fell to all-time lows. The military machine ground to a slow and halting state,  and the Russian population suffered severe disruptions and substantial deprivations.

In summer of 2017, the US Congress voted to extend sanctions and increased the severity of them in response to intelligence agency findings that Russia interfered with the national elections in November, 2016. The Trump administration opposed the sanctions and worked in the legislative buildup to reduce or eliminate them. There was no explanation for that strategy in the face of universal agreement from US and allied intelligence of the Russian election cyberwarfare. The Congress voted overwhelmingly to extend sanctions and impose additional costs; thus far, the Trump Administration has not acted as needed to carry them out.

Ukraine and Russia deja vu

In Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine- a very nice city that I have visited and enjoyed- there is a mammoth government installation. It takes considerable time just to drive past it. As the walled areas make it difficult to grasp the scale of the place, it is the plant where generations of Soviet missiles and rockets were developed, designed, and constructed. 

Recently, North Korea made some surprising advances in rocketry- a new design and remarkably advance capabilities. North Korea can launch and effectively strike targets as far away as the continental United States The sudden advance?  Yes, they apparently came from models developed for Russia in the Ukraine, and in the sprawling facility in Dnipro. How they became property of the North Korean Dictator is as at yet unsolved mystery. Again, Ukraine and Russia at the center of US international policy.

The Pattern of Serving Russian Goals

In July 2016, there was a mysterious action taken at the GOP convention; an abrupt change in policy in the Platform to stop the sanctions, reduce participation in NATO, and accept the Russian Occupation of Crimea and the elections thereafter which international agencies have condemned as illegitimate.

The Russia investigations in the House and Senate each seek to establish whether there was some form of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian leadership as the quid pro quo for Russia’s successful efforts to influence key parts of the US electorate.

Iran, Syria, and Russia

Again, the sanctions and the tilt towards doing Russia’s bidding occurs at the fulcrum of the most difficult international challenges.  In the spring of 2017, the Administration abruptly announced it would no longer seek regime change in Syria- consistent with Russia policy. A few days later, Assad gassed his own people again. The following day, the US advised Russia it would make a symbolic missile strike on a Syrian base. The TV cameras covered the missiles, and Syria moved its equipment in advance of the attack and sustained no damage or reduction of its ability to carry out attacks. 

Today, the US will begin to dismantle the Iran nuclear agreement. The refusal to certify Iran's compliance could free Iran's government to develop its nuclear program as well as continue its support of Assad in Syria. The US foreign policy continues to  align and contour itself to support Russian objectives and to do so when and if they damage US policies and traditional principles.

The word of a nation is important in its conduct of international relations. Ultimately, we would like to negotiate a nuclear deal with North Korea that could advance their stagnant and under served economy , improve the level of living there , and move them closer to normal relationships with other regional powers. Such agreements depend on the trust that other nations have in US commitments. 

The current administration as removed any semblance of trust or confidence in US policy or commitments. The chaotic messages come from Tweets, ill-advised public papers, news leaks, and public statements that often defy understanding. The confluence of these behaviors weakens America, diminishes our role in international events, and makes us increasingly subservient to Russian interests.  It is an odd pairing with an admitted enemy that currently points thousands of tons of nuclear explosives at us.