New Sanctions Against Russia—a Badly Needed First Step

New Sanctions Against Russia—a Badly Needed First Step

The election of 2016 may be remembered historically for the cyber-attack on US democracy that put at risk America’s venerable political strength and remarkable history of bold leadership. The election of Trump was a function of Russian manipulation of the US electorate.  Trump was not Putin’s preferred candidate for political reasons; he was preferred for global economic, military and strategic reasons. A reasoned set of observations of Trump policies and actions support a finding that he has weakened the US in strategic and important ways. The preliminary conclusion is that these actions have both weakened the US and strongly favored Russia.

Collaboration with the Enemy…

The Trump for President campaign was led for a while by Paul Manafort a former advisor to the deposed President of Ukraine. ( Viktor Yanukovich was- in both Ukrainian and international opinion- a Putin puppet.) The Trump campaign abruptly changed the GOP platform in July 2016 to eliminate the international sanctions against Russia, and to accept the occupation of Crimea. Revelations from intelligence and other sources have outlined a litany of high level contacts between High-level Russian agents and officials and the Trump campaign, transition, and Administration. The Trump parties included the national security advisor, the Attorney General, senior advisor Kushner, and Trump Jr. The record shows an active working relationship between the Russian effort to destabilize the election process and the Trump campaign.

Later, after the inauguration, the Trump Administration abruptly announced acceptance of the murderous Assad Regime in Syria.  Most recently Trump tried to weaken or block Congressional sanctions for Russian interference in the election on Trump’s behalf.  A distinct pattern connects these events of the US making sudden and factually unsupported policy reversals that fit Russian interests and violate US interests in peace, democracy, and international justice. The Russians were not just helping Trump to scold Hilary or to create chaos in US politics—they saw a chance to weaken the strongest nation on earth severely, a precise shot like David and the sling…

A Democracy in Imminent Peril

The Trump approach has been to shamefully discard civil accord and hard-fought US traditions. He wants to rig the next election by suppressing votes from ordinary citizens—veterans, families that sent children to war, all can be suppressed by the voter racial-purity zealots that he has assembled and authorized. The suppression team have begun work with personal track records that put Blacks, Latins, and Democrats in their cross hairs.  Some future historians might note the severity of the risk to Democracy by adding together the below-listed dramatic circumstances.

• ·        Russian influence over the Presidency, and the GOP acquiescence
• ·        Republican majority control of the House and Senate
• ·        Republican control over the Supreme Court
• ·        An unprecedented racial assault on voting rights; and cyber-threats based on
• ·        Gathering all the available voter data into a central and vulnerable depository.

Trashing the Obama Successes

President Barack Obama initiated an international coalition to oppose Russian military aggression in Eastern Europe, Syria, and elsewhere in the world. He created an effective non-military weapon that stopped the Russian invasion of Ukraine and limited its ability to carry out military missions in other theaters of hostilities. The Obama Doctrine used banking systems and precisely drawn economic sanctions that deprived the Russian military of the economic support needed to carry out its vicious military aggression.

Ukraine at the Nexus

The sanctions specifically targeted the oil sector of the Russian economy and punished the violations of international law and national sovereignty in the invasion of Ukraine and annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. The hostilities in DonBas under Russian backing, support, and direction have cost thousands of lives and displaced more than 100,000 persons.

This week, the Congress joined the American people in opposing Russian domination of the US political system. The Congress in sequential actions in the Senate and House has agreed on a package of sanctions against Russia that also include sanctions against Iran and North Korea. 

The End Game in Ukraine

The occupation of Ukraine is an important step for Putin; Ukraine is the largest European nation and it has a vast potential to become a leading economy in Eastern Europe. The end game for Putin in Ukraine is to take it back within Russia’s political and governmental sphere. Following a series of secret meetings between Trump and Vladimir Putin at the recent G-20 Convention, the dots have begun to appear on a plausible forecast for the next stage of Russian aggression in Ukraine.        

-        Dot One-The rebel forces in Donbass region announced the formation of a new Ukraine. They would dissolve the current government of Ukraine and re-establish the traditional little Russia or Malorussiya.

-        Dot Two- Trump stops the Obama sanctions and vetoes the new sanctions.

-        Dot Three-One can foresee a Putin -style referendum focused on RTV viewers and Russian speakers in the East Ukraine and a declaration of independence.

-        Dot Four- Rather than breaking the Ukraine into small pieces, this new potential end game gambit would simply swallow it whole and preserve the population, economy, and infrastructure essentially intact.

An Act of National Submission

The annexation of Ukraine would require submission by the US and an extremely grudging acceptance from central Europe. The plebiscite theory has a surface appearance that can attract the support of Russian allies and those simply unwilling to engage in a resolution that could end in open hostilities and regional warfare.

Putin Trump Secret Meetings…

The Putin-Trump intrigue suggests that Trump might well be willing to surrender Ukraine to Russia under some pretense of correcting relations with Russia. After all, his predecessor brought the Russian economy to its knees in retribution for its illegal conduct.

Playing Progress in Reverse

If the current pattern of reversing the Obama achievements persists, then Trump might logically assume it is time to reward Russia for its criminal conduct. The UN-DO Obama Doctrine has been on display for six months. Surrendering on Ukraine makes about as much sense as destroying Obamacare and leaving 36 million Americans uninsured—Putin might approve of that policy too. So much of Trump's actions since taking office attend Putin’s ultimate goals for weakening America one significant, and chaotic step at a time.

Weakening America - One Fake Mistake at a Time

 

Weakening America - One Fake Mistake at a Time

The Trump Administration came to power in large part on the efforts of the Russian government to interfere with the national elections in 2016. Russia openly abetted the Trump campaign and trafficked in stolen intellectual property and hacked private communications. During the campaign and since the inauguration, the Trump administration has engaged in a pattern of government actions that provide advantages to Russia at the expense of US interests and US policy. Trump has weakened the US both at home and abroad, and he has advanced an agenda particularly advantageous to Russia.  He has boosted Putin’s overall efforts to disrupt the Western Democracies and then destabilize and diminish the United States.  Secure in the US cocoon, it is easy to forget there are enemies of Democracy.

“Russia is the only country in the world realistically capable of turning the United States into radioactive ash…” Dmitry Kiselyov

Part 1. Diminishing America on the Global Stage

Trump has done his best to alienate the traditional allies on which the US has depended since the end of WWII. His ham-handed tactics and contradictory messaging reflect a level of ignorance not previously achieved by an American Chief Executive. The effect has been to lower the international stature of the US to a level closer to his own than to the magnificent leadership that preceded him. Western leaders view Trump as unpredictable and unreliable. His tendency to share military secrets with the enemies of the US has alarmed world leaders to the extent that many will no longer share sensitive intelligence with the US.

A.    Destabilizing the NATO Alliance

NATO is a defense organization; it does not make plans or efforts to attack other nations. It has played a vital role in keeping peace in Europe after nearly 40 years of catastrophic conflicts and the introduction of nuclear weapons of mass destruction. The Russian government under Putin views NATO as a threat to its dominance over Eastern Europe. The lure of the strength of Western economies has created deep fissures among the former Soviet Bloc nations. Ukraine was the latest example of a bordering government that attempted to move closer to western style democracy and the robust economies of Central Europe and the European Union. Putin’s Russia views NATO as a military adversary.

Putin’s goal is to weaken the alliance and reduce its influence over the emerging democracies of Eastern Europe. Towards the goal of weakening the alliance, some Russian messages have taken hold in the Trump Administration to belittle NATO and dismiss its importance. The public stance that our vital allied nations have not paid their dues is an example of the fake mistakes that the Administration has advanced to lower NATO in US public opinion. No sane government spends as much as the US on defense, and to expect other nations willingly to waste precious resources on needless and costly weapons is absurd. NATO is strong and vital, and it is financially sound. The repudiation and grossly exaggerated criticism of NATO finances set the stage for reducing public support for US participation in NATO. It sets the stage for achieving Putin’s goal of destabilizing NATO.

B.    International Sanctions

The Obama Doctrine on the annexation of Crimea and invasion of Eastern Ukraine did not use deadly force or engage in hostilities with Russia. Instead, it used banks and narrowly focused economic punishments. Combined with the decline in world oil markets, the Russian economy went into a tailspin from which it has yet to recover.  The unmanageable debt blocks extension of the Russian military.  Deprived of international credit and bank support, the Ruble is pitifully low in value. The Russian people constantly feel the strain of partial economic isolation.

C.    The Invasion of Ukraine

The hostilities in the Donbas region, more particularly in Donetsk and Luhansk, have taken thousands of lives and displaced thousands more. The Russian encroachment is thinly disguised behind the military elements that it supplies with person-power, equipment, and the missiles that destroyed a Dutch passenger airline.  The region has pro-Russian influences that have cultural histories, but more immediately, it reflects the impact of Russian TV and news. The brutality of the fighting has taken its toll on Ukraine yet their spirits, and sense of nationhood remain high and strong. The Ukrainian people thirst for the kind of democracy that used to exist in the US before the GOP gave up on governance and adopted Trumpism.

D.    The Embrace of Syria and Assad

The murderous government of Bashar al-Assad has turned Syria into an abattoir in proportions rarely seen.  He has turned his military on innocent citizens to reduce the nation to those that follow him. The US has consistently condemned Assad’s brutality since he began his desperate fight for survival against forces fighting for democracy in Syria. The Trump Administration mindful of the record of brutality against civilian populations nonetheless decided to announce a form of support for Assad. The Trump Administration decided to announce that they would no longer seek regime change in Syria. This reversed the cornerstone of US and Western policy against Assad- widely regarded as a war criminal and a despot. The day after the UN Ambassador and Administration spokesperson announced the change, Assad unleashed a lethal gas attack on his civilian population. The US responded with a fake missile attack on Syria. With the mistake that the US military announced the attack in advance, the Syrian military avoided any serious damage to their air strike capacity.

E.    Russian Military Aggression

Russian military aggression was abruptly curtailed by the impact of the Obama sanctions. They have been increasingly unable to extend and sustain extension of their military power. In Syria, they experienced a painful loss of an advanced fighter-bomber when shot down by Turkey. Russia backed away from further conflict with Turkey and avoided direct hostilities with the NATO alliance. The Russian military operation in the Syria theater centered around an old aircraft carrier in chronic poor repair. Some part of the military operated smoothly others showed the strain of its poor economic foundation. Russia managed to prop up Assad when he teetered on failure by bombing nearly indiscriminately and providing ground support. 

Putin's true need is to control the US government and its foreign policy. It compensates for the lack of economic power. The stalemate along its borders tends to demonstrate that Russia lacks resources to directly impose its will. In the poor economy, allocating  resources to military usage reduces the quality of life for ordinary citizens.

F.    Russian Nuclear First Strike

Russia has violated the terms of the latest nuclear arms agreements by deploying ballistic missiles in untraceable mobile forms such as rail cars. Instead of renouncing a nuclear first strike, these intermediate range missiles carry nuclear warheads, and Russia can position them at or near the borders of targeted nations. With no time for effective countermeasures, this amounts to an unstoppable first strike. Nations must now reckon their nuclear strategy for offensive first strikes since there is no defense against a mobile-based Russian first strike. This is a destabilizing event of the first order of magnitude.

Part 2. The Domestic Impacts

The Russian agenda needs a weaker US economy and a less cohesive US population. The US economy has shown remarkable strength and resilience during the Obama years. This occurred despite the burn the earth opposition of the Republican-controlled Congress and state governments. They joined to block millions of new jobs and scores of new industries that would have provided vibrant careers for young and retrained workers.

•    Weakening the Government Infrastructure

The US government is a multifaceted and redundant system meant to respond to known and anticipated needs. It does not function like a business that seeks to leech profits from its customer base. The federal government exists to meet needs and provide benefits as enacted by the Congress. The government responds to massive emergencies, researches diseases for cures, plans on ways to avoid hunger, maintain freshwater, and promote clean air. It feeds the needy and houses the homeless, and protects against known and potential threats to public safety. The government has and will continue to be systematically weakened by Trump. Whether by destroying climate data, curtailing medical research, or slashing the needed levels of person power, Trump will savage the government and thereby reduce its ability to respond to vital needs.

• Waste and Want

Pouring resources into spurious adventures such as the border wall, for which Mexico will clearly not pay, weakens the government’s ability to handle urgent matters. Floods persist and worsen due to climate change and the infrastructure to support flood abatement needs drastic revision and improvement. The electric grid is more vulnerable than in the past due to the increased intensity of storms in recent years. Seasonal storms grow more intense as the global temperatures warm and the lower atmosphere holds more water.

•    Removing Safeguards against Economic Excess

The estate tax affects few taxpayers; most do not have enough wealth to leave to heirs that go beyond the $7.5 million allowed before taxes. A couple could leave $15 million to a designated heir without federal taxation. This is not enough for the few that can gain by abolishing the tax. The tax provides an estimated $275 billion to the US Treasury over a projected decade. These funds go to underprivileged Americans. The power of wealth in a democracy is the subject of another essay and likely a book.  Suffice it say, the circumstance of birth should not be the factor that decides whom shall have the economic power to determine the future of society. 

Healthcare reform is a vehicle for transferring wealth from the middle class to the top one percent. Along the way, more than 20 million Americans will lose health coverage. They will risk shortened lives with far more human suffering than if they had regular medical care.  If the lessons of Trump-ism mean anything, it means that wealth is now a political commodity and the public is at severe risk if wealth and hereditary wealth are  not heavily regulated, taxed to the maximum, and controlled.

•    Reducing Education and Promoting Ignorance

Evidence and truth are keystones of democracy. The free marketplace of ideas is the essential predicate for a civilian population equipped to make decisions about government and policy. The fundamental link between government and the people depend upon truth and the ability to understand facts. Critical thinking whether by training or some profound instinct has been the underpinning of an electorate that has been effective at finding some common semblance of truth in consensus. That element is under assault by the Trump-ism and teeters on the verge of loss. Cutting education and turning over moral guidance to the unkind hands of parents already caught in the web of Trump-spun ignorance furthers the goals of expanding race division, class warfare, and gullibility.

Without an informed electorate, we are doomed to fall over and over for the glib manipulations of Trump and Putin and slick-lies from every side of the meaningful questions of our day.  Today, the call has gone out to Trump-supporters, and the enemy is the Liberal Press.

3. The Real Mistakes Also Add Up

The Paris Climate Control Accord was the leading edge of global cooperation on a massive scale of technology and global management. The problems will be managed through cutting edge technology and technical advances yet to appear. Political, economic and technological leadership opportunities abound in these scenarios. Whether one accepts the settled scientific views that climate change has roots in man-made activity, the ability to control the impact of industrial activity on the delicate membrane of the planet on which we live. Artificial Intelligence may get its first global applications as the permutations of economic growth and pollution reduction gain steam and begin to have economic impacts. The opportunity for a global policy development and enforcement structure to self-police poisoning of air and water deserves the highest priority. It is no less important than air or water to humankind.

Part 3. In Summary

The fake mistakes create a predicate for the public to hold while the hammer drops on the vitality of America. The risks include the national goals of global leadership to promote democracy worldwide. We have but one world to share, and with the power and blessings so fortunately laid upon the US through its remarkable history, come the opportunities to make the word safer, more abundant, more livable, and more just. The pretense of leadership in the Chief Executive would march a great nation into a great retreat from its vast potential for change and good in the world.

The rift between America and its nominal government leadership is a crisis of national consequence, and it is one probably not foreseen by millions of still-shocked citizens. It is here, and it is the new reality.  There is a struggle for the essence of America, and it is for her vital core; it is a battle for her sense of truth and purpose.