The Changing Face of Oil Markets

I have a habit of buying gasoline at $15 per fill up. I have convenient locations on my daily flight path and so I don’t mind the constant stops. But as prices have fallen I have noticed that in the beginning I barely got one-third of a tank. Today for my $15 I got more than one-half tank and paid less that $2 per gallon (--)  Thank you President Obama!

The worldwide glut of oil is a fairly small differential; the overproduction is not dramatic, but as better spoken by Shakespeare- paraphrasing here- tis not so deep as a well nor so wide as a church door…But tis enough.  The critical factor is the U.S. market, it was the U.S. market after all that began the illegal control of oil prices by the oil producers in a nation whose basic laws require the opposite- The fundamental legal policy here is to oppose monopoly control and trusts.  By allowing the producers to control the price and supply of crude oil, we auctioned our national future for the sake of a few oil companies and their stockholders.  Finally, the flown birds have come back to roost.
The trigger was U.S. Shale oil production and the noxious hydraulic fracturing technology. The kicker was the technological refinements in that technology that significantly increased production efficiencies and yield per well, per day.

There are many international scenarios intertwined in the changing face of oil markets, and even as the price of oil continues to fall, there are signs of a further economic slowdown in Europe, a profound slow-down in Russia, and the lessened strategic value of oil as a political and military weapon. Consider the extraordinary effectiveness of Western sanctions against the Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine. A Republican U.S. President would have ignored it with no more than passing bits of harsh language. The weak-kneed Republican response would have been to increase arms sales to the satellite nations that could afford to buy more. But Obama established a definitive global impact that has had a profound effect on the Russian economy; oil is the engine for its military aggression. A shrouded public in Russia will not understand that the invasion of Ukraine and Occupation of Crimea has little to do with national pride and a lot to do with creating vast luxuries for his network of fellow Russian billionaires. But controlled media cannot douse the growing hungers, unemployment, and shrinking purchasing power. The face of oil has changed in Russia, from the great fountain to a meager flow.
 In the U.S. drivers enjoy low priced gasoline, some ancillary consumer benefits may come in the form of lower production costs for goods and agriculture- intertwined with petroleum-based chemical processes- may also see some commodity price benefits. More than anything, the drain of petroleum prices was a drag on economic growth; along with insurance, petroleum siphoned much of the lifeblood of the U,S, economy, which can have substantial periods of consumer-driven expansion(--) or simply pay $4 at the pump and stagnate- we see growth and it is impelled by  lower fuel costs and increased discretionary spending. The face of oil markets has changed in America.
Lower prices may eventually shut down some new production, and this is the floor for oil prices; when production declines. However, as an insular market - we do not export crude oil- there is an insulating price factor too. Domestic shale oil can survive below $60 per barrel, and low prices will encourage greater efficiency.  There is a window of production efficiency that is a by-product of the rush to establish production, Not enough care to some, but certainly room for improvement in capturing useful substances that were initially cast aside as wastes.  While some projects will close and other will never open, the impact has been felt, and production will continue even as prices fall below $50 per barrel.
In the near future, as alternative energy continues to grow, many structural users of petroleum and natural gas will adjust their reliance on crude oil, electric cars too will have some immediate force, and then a far more pronounced market impact. The U.S. will once again face an opportunity to move further past oil. Whether hydrogen powered vehicle as envisioned by Toyota or national deployment of solar production, a set of panels on every roof, we will have opportunities to use national policies to further change the face of oil markets.

The XL Pipeline has become obsolete before its construction, and this is a telling impact of change. The dirty, difficult-to-process mountains of tar sands have no place in the world's markets, and only continue due to the influence of money on the U.S. Congress. Seen in the light of changed oil markets, it appears to be a nearly corrupt abrogation of national interests. To burden the world with un-needed, life choking levels of pollution, and to abuse the precious American heartland to deliver Canadian oil profits. Even in news and truth-sheltered and limited American public will begin to wonder why we would do such a thing, inflict such a scar on this beautiful country. They will wonder of the patriotism of the corporate Senators and Congress-persons, and they will wonder why we would make such an effort to raise oil prices, there is no cheap way to process tar sands.

Sources:
Chevron Shuts Down Arctic Deep Water
http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/ddroitsch/reality_bites_chevron_indefini.html?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=socialmedia

XL Pipeline is no longer financially sound
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-keystone-20141216-story.html

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/oil-keystone-xl-113551.html

hydrogen cars from Toyota
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-12-17/toyota-embraces-fuel-cell-cars-for-post-gasoline-future

Normalization With Cuba Is The Right Policy

Cuba sits on our southern doorstep, except for the common border countries; it is the most prominent nation in our geographic neighborhood with which we do not have diplomatic and commercial relationships.  We have watched for decades as we deployed our punitive policy against the Dictator Fidel Castro against the Cuban population. Castro’s brutal rule forced millions to flee, and it is for that reason the large Cuban community in the U.S. is largely comprised of people who have been victimized by Castro. History justifies the  Cuban community's deep resentment  but history also supports change. Isolation has not produced progress, and the people of Cuba suffer from our policies that truly are aimed at the political leadership there.

We have people in leadership in the United States who have been as brutal and doctrine driven as Castro. It is not a reach to suggest that an entire generation of Americans has been victimized by U.S. aggression in Iraq. Trillions of dollars wasted, hundreds of thousands of lives lost. Many thousands of American families suffered from the combat causalities there. It was reckless and misguided; it was brutal in its impact. The semblance of society that remains in Iraq is a sad tribute to the destruction of war.  There must be better ways to remove a few criminal dictators, and to provide free choice for a population. If there are, then they must begin with engagement.

Normalization Will Boost The U.S Economy
Opening travel and trade with Cuba will boost the U.S. economy. It will perhaps reduce one additional source of trade for the sanctioned Russian government. It will provide opportunities for cultural and educational enrichment for both nations. And it will improve economic opportunity for the current generations of Cuban people who have done nothing to deserve  international isolation.  Punishing the people for the perceived misdeeds of an autocratic government makes little sense. The Cuban people- by our theory of the world- are political captives.

Republican Critics Have a Reflex and No Reason
By all accounts, the Republican party leaders will condemn the policy because it is the Obama policy. They will ignore the President’s splendid role, and historic achievements  as the leader of Western Democracy and claim he has weakened the U.S. by dealing with a dictator.  These same people have promoted Putin’s war in Eastern Europe; soft-pedaled Bin Laden and Al Qaeda, and played politics with ISIL while they cut a swath of terror in the Middle East. They have, thus far, failed to advance a legislative policy to contain the global threat of an oil-rich ISIL. There is little reason to pay attention to them. To assert that they care for the poor in Cuba is clouded by the way they treat the poor in America. It is as if they forget, in the global stage, you are what you do, and not what you say.

U.S. Cubans Can Make a Difference
The Cuban ex-patriot community has skin n the game. They have family ties, cultural roots, and ultimately a love of their native country. Engagement will be an opportunity to reach the Cuban community and foster ideals that can bring change. Opening relations with Cuba is an opportunity for involvement and the Cuban American community, there is no group better positioned to influence democracy in Cuba.

FREEFALLING…Putin Style (Opinion)

The rouble has crashed, it has fallen to 80 then resuscitated to 70 to one dollar. The Russian government is unable to support the currency.   People rush to dump roubles and salvage goods for them as best they can. Rising interest rates seem to have failed to stabilize banks or the currency. While not admitting a financial panic, watching local behavior, the conclusion is hard to avoid. People are urgently trying to maintain themselves while the currency loses value before their eyes.

This is the true price of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, it is a price paid by the average Russian citizen, their pensions and salaries becoming more and more meaningless as the consumerism they have grown to cherish is pushed further away from their reach. The people have been told by their leaders and the state-controlled media that the economy has been attacked by the West, and that they will prevail by being morally strong. The call to patriotism and pride resonates with the common people; they believe they will defeat the West. Some stories are heart warming reminders that people will find silver linings no matter how foolhardy their leader’s behaviors might be.  

Oil Prices Continue the Slide

The Russian plans for $95 per barrel benchmark prices have been buried beneath a gusher of U.S. oil production. Oil shale projects with low interest financing have proven influential and persistent despite low market prices. As benchmarks fall below $60, there are few signs of falling U.S. production, and the world still has an oversupply of crude. The ironies are not lost here. It resembles a Russian tragedy of its ages, and played out many times before. Whether by Czarists aristocrats, class and privilege conscious communists, or as now, billionaire oligarchs, the common people find the reasons to go on believing. They buy into a dream that they will never share, or, perhaps as in America, the poor feel it is their role- to be loyal to the rich. While appealing to patriotism, It appears that much of the international aggression is aimed at creating greater luxuries for the oligarchs.

The motto emblazoned across this prow of this sinking ship is that:  the Crimea is ours…. This is little comfort to the growing bottom economic layer where inflation and a crashed currency have made comfort less obtainable. It is not a substitute for the middle class preferences that keep them preoccupied with personal progress, it is not a substitute for the capital flight from Russia as investors have withheld or withdrawn nearly a trillion dollars in investment capacity from the Russian economy since the invasion of Ukraine. While Putin makes news by elaborate gestures to Turkey, China, and India this path to diversification is characterized by weakness and desperation. It is not the high-tech super warship cancelled by France, or the elaborate gas pipeline into central Europe.  All over the world, fast money moves are building new Russia-free linkages, and this is the true damage brought by Putin, he has set Russia on a path of isolation as the global economy grows exponentially around his military aggression.

The Powers of Political Media

Like the United States, Russia has a propaganda machine that feeds a constant stream of counter-reality to its people. In the United States for example, they were fed a multi-billion dollar deluge of ant-Obama, ISIS, and Ebola.  Many believed that the U.S. was under siege by Obama, ISIS and a flood of immigrants from Latin America, who also carried ISIS and Ebola.  The hysteria worked and despite a booming economy and amid excellent signs of economic recovery, the American people recently voted a radical, pro-corporate government into place that is determined to depress the middle-class. There is a similar dynamic in Russia, where news media have created a narrative that holds Obama to blame for Putin’s aggressions. While Putin may be building seaside resorts for his rich allies, the average Russian believes they are in a Holy test of will and patriotism.  The problem in both the U.S. and Russia is simply this, under media influence people support political causes that will limit progress and do permanent damage to their future prospects.

Sanctions Accelerate Damage

The world owes a debt of gratitude to President Obama’s leadership on Ukraine sanctions. The Obama response to the invasion of Ukraine marks a noticeable first: oil is not a fuel for military aggression.  The oil-money powered Russian military has not achieved its objectives so far. The simple and easy conquest of Ukraine has brought instead an economic maelstrom.  War is a failure of reason; historically, it has been a tool of base convenience and essential evil.  Sanctions are an effort to bring about reason, debate, and positive change. In Russia, there is a gravity–defying syndrome of patriotism and bravery in the face of growing economic chaos. The people, their hopes and political will, all committed to keeping the society moving forward. However, like any objects spinning in air, there is a good chance that, in the end, gravity will prevail.

Ukraine and the Wounded Russian Economy

The Ruble rose to 57 against the dollar, however the nation's reserve of 400 billion U.S. dollars seems dwarfed by more than 700 billion in debt to Western Banks. Because of the Ruble's slide into the 40 range and domestic inflation in the range of 9 percent, state pensions have lost buying power. But ordinary citizens will stand in line behind the powerful state corporations running oil, gas, and banking  who need all of the Russian $90 billion  rainy day fund to meet current demands.  The Russian economy teeters on the edge of recession, which in truth means it is already in recession and waits only the state of un-deniability to take hold.



Sanctions and Leadership

The Western sanctions led by the persistent vision of President Obama has delivered a telling blow to Russian international aggression. Sanctions have often been ridiculed by the international war machine because it does the work claimed by war business without the blood and other-worldly level of costs. The approximately $2 trillion adventure in Iraq under Bush  is a lingering cloud on the U.S. future, a mountain of debt that President Obama has also managed quite well. The U.S. has been on a growth path despite Republican efforts to stall the economy.

Russia in a Spiral

The triumphant messaging of State TV and Radio- Putin's personal version of the Republican Fox News in the U.S.- has turned to a more defiant tone, The nation must endure against the American onslaught. Putin may indeed launch new wars to deflect the economic suffering that has begun with thousands of layoffs in the health care sector. The new connection with China  has rapidly approaching limits; China cannot finance Russian ambitions nor relieve the current debt situation. In fact, China has scored record value on recent gas and oil contracts with Russia, that will become a factor in the event of rising oil prices.  Today's desperate Russian oil business deals are the lost economic opportunities in a rising economic cycle.



 Russian Privileged Elites

Russian aggression in the Ukraine and now also in Georgia has a theme identified by some experts as a focus on territory on the Black Sea.  A prevailing line of thought is that Putin has designs on creating luxury real estate development for the Oligarch class. A territory designed like the European Riviera's  to cater to Russian Millionaires.  This thought cannot penetrate the state-controlled media, but as casualties from warfare rise, eventually some Russians will wonder if the Putin ideal of a greater Russia is simply  a plan for greater luxury for a few Russians.  If so, is the loss of life among civilians and military a reasonable trade-off?  Russians who will never see the Black Sea luxuries asked to give the lives of their children, and  thousands of refugees from war zones like Donetsk made to surrender their places and ways of life.  It is a weighty sacrifice for the good of the rich, even in the calculus of Putin's New Russia.



 A Safer, Wiser Future

The overall impact of sanctions today can strengthen U.S. resolve to use economic strategies rather than leap into costly humanitarian disasters like the implosion of Iraq into the rise of ISIL. The Bush Doctrine of perpetual war and oil hegemony can, hopefully, fade into memory, except for the cautionary tale of greed and fall. In a more civilized future, the current use of Western economic tools will stand as a bold beginning. It has been an instructive lesson on alternative dispute resolution on an international scale, it is  a model for further development and expansion wherever possible.

un-Quiet on the Eastern Front

 There are flare-ups that are costly and bring earth shattering loss and  life-changing injury to the families of slain soldiers. A fragile and tenuous cease-fire covers the once boiling pot and all-out warfare. Amidst reports of a troop draw down from the border region with Donetsk, the once hot and raging war between Ukrainian defenders and Russian invaders has settled into conference room debates among diplomats. The news and more important the air above the Ukraine have less smoke and report of bomb blasts in recent weeks. For the part of Vladimir Putin, the state of his economy needs more attention than the takeover of Ukraine. Oil prices have fallen to lows for recent years, and the Russian economy requires the opposite, it requires rising prices. The national budget built on mid $90 per barrel prices has met the below $80 per barrel reality. Shock waves have spread through the economy. The Ruble has fallen to be the worst performing currency of any major nation



 The Western sanctions targeted members of the Russian Elite and with  noticeable effects. The sanctions have limited expansion of Russian oil holdings and exploration by restricted access to capital markets and long-term financing. Developmental oil reserves have been an important national asset, a spur for growth.



The United States has become a leading producer of energy products and has set records for crude oil production.  One may debate the merits of hydraulic fracturing, but it has contributed to a major increase in domestic energy production.  The recent two-month slide in crude oil prices and prices at the pump for American drivers is a product of  surging U.S.energy production. When combined with the world oil glut, and drop in oil prices, the Russian Energy Sector has experienced some  difficulties.  The Russian economy us largely dependent upon its energy sector for overall growth.

The effects of the Obama led coalition against Russian aggression in Ukraine have had some expected impacts, inflation has risen, the availability of goods has changed, fewer available goods. The government has taken some extreme steps to prop up some of the targeted institutions, for example, it gave Bank Rosiya  a profitable role as collector of electric energy fees. The sanctions have exposed issues and contentions within the country, Long known for suspected corruption, the inability to feed a loyalty based on economic privilege reminds of the situation in Ukraine. Victor Yanukovich ruled through a coalition of  insiders who gained economic advantages. The reforms  needed for entry into the EU included greater transparency and an end to some of the most obvious forms of corruption. It was the need to cut off so many insiders that weakened his regime to the point of collapse.

 Make no mistake, Russia has been weakened by the sanctions and so has Mr. Putin. Now the mad scramble begins as borders begin to seep illicit goods into Russia, and a new wave of corruption takes center stage.



The Russian economy is not growing, and there are signs of contraction. Its economy suffers for its military excess, and there is a growing belief that Russia must correct the Crimea, as well as Eastern Ukraine   before sanctions may be lifted.  The advances to China hold some hope for an eventual Russian economic uptick.  However, when a nation knows how much one  needs cooperation, it tends to drive harder bargains.  In an economy built upon an unfairness, the average citizen in Russia may begin to feel the chill of being left behind the march of progress.



In this protracted and under appreciated adventure, the banks have proved to be the equal of the bullets and the bombs in shaping the destiny of this wasteful and avoidable conflict. For their part, the brave an resilient Ukrainian army has shown it will give all to defend their democracy.



Note - for  a revealing perspective see the Chronicle of Mechnikov Hospital" by Serg Rizhenko and translated by Marina Teplova on Facebook.

Ukraine and a Lesson For The West

Vladimir Putin has a rapt audience, his people receive a steady diet of misinformation.  They believe that the Ukraine government has attacked them and they must defend mother Russia.  The power of propaganda is such, like many examples before- or in the USA today among Fox News viewers, the distortions are the utterances of objective observers.
The West has learned that the vulnerabilities of most nations are financial. In a global economy all have open wounds and weaknesses. Commenter after commenter, presumably under the influence of habit perhaps say sanctions don't work; compared to what-- as if  armed conflict were superior?
Sanctions can be even more scientifically engineered; the rise of the oligarchs, has strategic implications. 

Putin Risks Russia's Future

Let there be no mistake, the course set by Putin to invade Ukraine has already cost a year of econoic growth for the Russian economy.  Even with the Fox News style of information control he exerts, business people feel the chill and fret for the near future as venture capital and working capital sources dry up along with lucrative prospects. The average Russian households belkieve that the Nation has been attacked by Ukraine, that Ukraine is a surrogate for U.S aggression.- like Fox News here, the propaganda soaks in deeply with little or no opposing view points.  They believe that Ukraine downed the MH-17 while trying to shoot down Putin's jet.

 Even the Russian FOXXed news will not blunt the impact of losing opportunities to grow new sources of oil and gas. The Russian economy depends on energy exports and weapons sales for much of its sustained vitality. Russian consumers enjoy Western electronics and trendy fashions. Tighter credit will begin to ripple through the economy as higher prices for everything. Putin's domestic popularity will grow until the information cycle begins to sprout some leaks- and in the Internet Age truth has a modern-age persistence.
The other variable Putin has underestimated is the courage of the Ukrainian people. They have a deep history of severe warfare, like much of Eastern Europe they have expereinced war on their home land and patriotism is far more than the empty trituals we often se in the west. Ukrainians are united against Russian aggression, and the conduct of the rebels in the Donetsk region has added fuel to the fire. They pretend there to be a government and carry out police functions including executions without trials.  The unhinged, homophobic military leadership there has distinguished itself by rash policies and harsh rule. No mater what they are told by the Russian FOXX, people can see they are not better off because the new rulers speak Russian-- they see the destruction everywhere and little signs of a better way of life.
The Ukrainian people are everything in a sense that the U.S. did not find in  Iraq and Afghanistan, a culture willing to make sacrifices to grow a democracy, and a military on the field standing like David against the Russian Goliath- armed with nothing so much as faith.

Russia's Economy Suffers For Military Excesses

No one can blame the Ukraine War on the Ukraine. Their democratic decision to oust Victor Yanukovich was a messy part of a growing democracy; the world watched protests that tested civil militia and asserted people’s power over a corrupt regime. It was not a predicate for a Russian Invasion that has already involved the loss of Crimea as well as insurgency in the Eastern Border. With Russia assistance and training, separatists have deployed sophisticated heavy missiles. The separatists became international terrorists by destroying a civilian passenger plane, and killing 298 innocent travelers and crew.

Vladimir Putin as head of state bears responsibility for his decision to send surface to air missiles to the rebels that immediately created a zone of danger to civilian air travel. That zone of danger delivered a tragedy with devastating impact on Central Europe.  No longer ambivalent, they speak openly of the war crimes committed by Putin and his rebel allies. One must remember the paths followed by Saddam and Kaddafi, they too got rich from governing energy rich nations, and Kaddafi sponsored a terror attack on an airliner.  Putin now fights to avoid entering this realm of public opinion, as a war criminal.

Putin is a billionaire, by all accounts, profiting personally from Russia’s primary businesses in oil and gas. The U.S. enacted sanctions  to punish the Russian oil sector, and cut-off financing; although without European backing, the sanctions forced Russia to ever more reliance on China for money. In the wake of MH-17, the EU may act and sacrifice economic benefits to punish Russia’s economy. The IMF had previously declared a Russian recession and with additional restrictions on banking and new business, the Russian economy may begin to shed jobs and lose economic momentum.

Russia has boosted the rebel forces, currently in retreat, by direct Russian artillery and rocket support. Russia has delivered a temporary battle-shifting impetus to the insurgents. It appears Russia has determined not to allow defeat and has massed some 10,000 troops, highly mobile units, to the Doneysk border area. Despite Russian bombardment, the Ukrainian army has advanced and tightened control of several key towns in the area previously held by the rebels.  The Ukrainian army has acquitted itself with bravery and determination. Ukraine has entered another phase of democratic growth - fighting to preserve its sovereignty; they fight to survive as a nation.

Sources:

IMF: Russia in Recession

http://rt.com/business/155848-russia-in-recession-imf/

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27221345

MH-17 War Crime

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28520813

U.S. Proof of Russian Bombardment

Satellite Proof

 http://rt.com/usa/175980-us-images-russia-ukraine/

In Malaysia MH-17- The world Sees Itself

 New economic sanctions from the United States will have damaging effects on the Russian economy and its key energy sector.  They were not applied in response to the attack on the Malaysia Flight MH-17, but by the coincidence of events occurred on the same day. The world's nations consider the attack on the Malaysia aircraft  as an attack upon the rest of the world, and treating all as enemies in all-out combat. With the same non-existent justification as the attacks on Ukraine, Malaysia and the entire world now can feel as Ukraine does, as a victim of savage aggression.

There are events, which by the sheer horror and savagery, force the world's attention on a time, place, and people. Russia has once again found this scornful glare of the world's vision and its contempt. The murders of nearly 300 air passengers over Ukraine has focused the world's judgment on the ruthless and vicious assault by Russia on the Ukraine .  Deliberately taking lives of innocent passersby - women, children, and infants  from many other parts of the world has done this. Simply creating an hysterical atmosphere and a zone of hostilities is not a justification for visiting  the excesses of war on innocent and uninvolved citizens of the world. Operating  a passenger aircraft in international airspace is not a provocation to any responsible State or military.

The mission of a few hired mercenaries in Eastern Ukraine has no valid purpose there, or anywhere, among civilized societies. The softness of the resistance to the Invasion of Crimea and the efforts to foment war with Ukraine have hardened into a firmer resolve. It is now clear that Russia is willing to unleash destruction on every other Nation simply to satisfy a whim for conquest of Ukraine- its weak and un-offending neighbor.

Now as Russia presses deadly hostilities on Ukraine, and recklessly upon every other nation, Western nations will have enormous pressures from domestic constituencies. There is a world-wide will to punish the ruthlessness of Putin's Government. Sanctions that have begin to isolate the regime and its economy.   Western efforts will expand to efforts to dissuade China and others from aiding Russia until it rejoins the circle of civility. Until it renounces killing as a means of achieving its goals, and until its goals conform with international rights and obligations.

Inside Ukraine- A Testing Time

The remnants of the Russian offensive inside Ukraine have maintained the offensive with goals of establishing a predicate for formal declaration of hostilities. In the Eastern region, Ukraine President  Petro Poroshenko has ordered military action to defend Ukraine territory and population. This is a testing time; the original goal of the rebellion was to present an image of endangered pro-Russian population groups in Ukraine that require rescue.

Ukraine is not accustomed to war, it has been a big part of their history but they are not like the U.S. Russia or most NATO countries- with tested military machines.  Ukrainian culture is rich in values but little to do with warfare. They are among the more vulnerable countries to an armed insurgency. The entire governmental ordeal from the demonstrations and fighting in Euro Maiden to the present has increased patriotic feelings in Ukraine, they will not lack for heroism and effort to defend themselves. But they do lack a cadre of tested war veterans, and a track record of military actions.

Through all, President Putin has remained in a low profile, and the situation presents  an opportunity which may be beyond his ambition but within his abilities. Putin can join President Obama and stand as a leader, not only of a great nation, also of humanity. He can lead the world into an era of peace and cooperation.  Russia like the U.S has a group of influential men intent on war, and invested in the profits of global conflict. However, like the U.S., it has a leadership structure which invests strategic military policy in one person-- a President.  Putin has an opportunity to compete for preeminence on the world stage that matters most, the path to Global peace. He can lead the Russian people inside Ukraine on a constructive path of power sharing and democratic processes.

This is the shape of the world when we all grow-up. Where we seek opportunities for embracing the value of life. It is a stage when we accept the blessing of life and agree it is the most valuable thing on Earth.

Obama Doctrine- International Conflict Management

In the crosscurrents of news coverage, there are important events that go overlooked and false events that appear real and far more important than they are. The Russian invasion of Ukraine after the the fall of the Russian puppet Victor Yanukovich was a real event. Russia moved to swallow-up an important, burgeoning Democracy. It invaded the Crimea, ran phoney elections, annexed the Peninsula, and began a military buildup to invade the rest of Ukraine. The world stood by without armed resistance, however, under the leadership of Barack Obama, began a remarkable battle plan to stop and reverse a brutal conquest. This strategic rather than military initiative opens an intriguing possibility,  that after thousands of years, people have begun to use rational processes to resolve conflict rather than brute force and killing.

War Is Simply Too Much
For any circumstance, except to repel an armed invasion, war is a poor weapon. It is meant  to achieve one objective: killing indiscriminately and in large numbers.  It is too broad; it is a blunderbuss when one needs a laser point.  In Iraq, for example, the phrase collateral damage became a heartless euphemism for destruction of innocent human life.  Collateral circumstances arose in the form of civil war and incredibly vicious sectarian attacks. Minimal estimates declare more than 100,000 perished in the civil conflicts.

Among recent examples of U.S. resistance to aggression, war has been selectively used and essentially politically motivated. Iraq was initiated for profiteering and oil, and  Afghanistan,the longest U.S. war. carried out as an appearance, a feigned pursuit of Osama Bin Laden.  The U.S. invaded Iraq and poised itself to obtain vast amounts of oil reserves. The premise for the invasion was a false claim of self defense.  The Bush Doctrine  justified use of extreme force against any threat, real or imagined. While Iraq at the time was under intensive U.S. military monitoring, and had no ability to effect an attack on the U.S.; we perceived a threat. Despite the weight of reality, the U.S. leadership under George Bush initiated an invasion, toppled the Saddam regime, which led to a decade of bloody civil war. The U.S. lost nearly 5,000 dead and spent more than $2 Trillion dollars.

Iraq Is Evidence: War Solves Little
In the past weeks, we have seen the Iraq government fold under a relatively mild assault from a small band of insurgents. ISIS have been able to capture broad swaths of Iraq territory, major cities, and oil fields. It is an insurgent force that, while greatly outnumbered by Iraqi military resources, has essentially met little to no opposition. Iraqi military have surrendered the field and turned over vast amounts of arms and equipment to the insurgents. The U.S. war in Iraq ended with a apparently stable Iraq and a government which sought no further U.S. military assistance. After our military separation, poor management and divisive politics have produced a crippled State that cannot police its borders nor defend its people and resources. The use of U.S. overwhelming military force by the Bush Administration destroyed the balance of social and political factors that made Iraq a cohesive state, it now founders and can easily fall into radical control that will further destabilize an entire region.

War Is a Failure of Reason
The invasion of Ukraine once again highlighted the gross folly of warfare. The precipitous invasion threatened to immerse all of Europe in a bloodbath for reasons of personal vanity or mere political advantage. However, the military and diplomatic crises in Ukraine offered new opportunities to employ a modern age set of principles and strategies. It would be a battle of banks and privileges, an economic counter-attack to a brutal use of military force.It was bold and brilliant. This strategy used weapons that pierced deeply into the fragile shell of Russia, namely, its weak and needy economy.  Run by oligarchs in key sectors, the Russian economy was interconnected with dependencies in Central Europe and to varying degrees much of the rest of the world. Using this new, policy-warfare, the allied West made piercing strikes into parts of the economic body of Russia that were vital and vulnerable.

It consisted of precision movements: a strike into the oil sector, a dramatic loss of equity in the Russian stock market, denial of international monetary and credit privileges for key Russian Banks, personal restrictions on economic access and travel for key players in the Putin Regime. A strategic boycott of an annual economic development summit deprived the Russian economy of its Black Friday - when so many large international transactions were usually consummated that the balance of the year was in the black. The results of the economic sanctions, joined by a solid alliance of Western Europe have been devastating to Russia. While not harmful to its average citizens, it was devastating to the national programs for economic growth. The power of the approach was always that there was a next, more severe, level, and that the pressures and deprivations would inexorably increase.

The Obama Doctrine- Punish Aggression with Precision
The selective use of force as secondary to diplomatic and economic measures can be called the Obama Doctrine. In it evolution, it has ushered-in a new possibility for managing conflict. It offers a potential for  rationalizing much of the world's conflicts to avoid armed confrontation.  Those nations which are invested in the global economy can no longer afford to pause for intervals of warfare.  The U.S. experience has shown those who will learn, that war is impossibly expensive and largely un-winnable.  We have Afghanistan and Iraq to offer as cases in support of the cautionary message of modern history. War is only profitable to the war machine, and they have learned to profit from not fighting as much as fighting.  The F-35 fighter at $125 million per plane is the current U.S. answer to ghosts of terrorists with box cutters and plane tickets. Somehow, the math does not favor us, and we still spend more than the next 10 nations combined in defense.

Stepping Back From The Brink
Share the perspective of a Ukrainian citizen watching as the Nation fell into a leaderless state through the demonstrations and bloodshed in Euro Maiden in Kyev, then to the menace of Russian Invasion. With the loss of Crimea and city after city Russian thugs fomenting civil uprisings, the military buildup on the borders clearly indicated imminent invasion and war with Russia. They knew the West wanted a deeper relationship but they also knew the West would not send troops and initiate a land war with Russia. In City after city, paramilitary groups took action and there seemed no escape from the inevitable- bloodshed and conquest. Obama began his leadership with powerful sanctions, few believed it could stop the onslaught and as sanctions took hold and increased, the curious present state began to form. Russia stopped, then pulled back; as the united block of U.S. and Western Europe tightened the screws on the Russian economy. There was a growing realization, Ukraine does not stand alone. Following new national elections, resumption of political and diplomatic relations with Russia and the West. Ukraine has achieve political stability and the elusive trade agreement with the West.

 A Delicate But Hopeful Balance
The Ukraine now sits in a delicate balance, there are still elements of the Russian subterfuge, still hostilities and remnants of the Russian takeover.  Crimea has been lost for the time being and its future is still a target of ongoing sanctions. Moldova and Georgia have joined with Ukraine in opening trade to the West, and  the Eastern European region  generally braces for economic and social change, not all of which is welcome. Inside Ukraine, there are pockets of peace and unrest. The still young movement towards greater democracy still requires nourishment and care. A nation must build democratic infrastructure; it must find its many voices of democratic communication.

A Small Step For A Nation, A Giant Leap For Mankind
Someday when the U.S. recovers from a drunken madness of right-wing-delirium about guns and bloodshed, we may look back with a distinct sense of pride and accomplishment. The small step towards alternatives to mass slaughter, in an age in which we reached a peak in the ability to inflict death and destruction, was truly amazing. The U.S. has stopped abruptly from an inertia of multiple fronts of war on an on-going basis.  We moved from an unlimited commitment essentially to fight every hostile nation in the middle-east, Asia, South America, and Africa and moved instead onto a path of non-lethal warfare and  peace. We can pursue conflict resolution without military means.

To be sure, the bristling level of armaments of the U.S. military are an essential part of diplomacy. But one cannot be blind to the fact that military strength does not stop every attack, and war does not solve the problems that give rise to conflict.There is more hope for the future when mankind can devote resources to solving common problems that threaten the global future well-being rather than engaging in warfare and destruction of life.

Better than bullets...

In the Soviet invasion of the Ukraine, following the drama of heroes in the Maijden in Kiev, the theft of Crimea, and the continued onslaught by State sponsored thuggism, a ray of hope and sunlight emerged. Proof of sanity in international relations. The United States under the leadership of President Obama, has stood boldly even where European nations have been too timid to act and established a landmark of peaceful resolution of armed conflict.

Far from the furious buildup of thousands of troops along the Ukraine border, and the brazen capture of the luxurious Crimean Peninsula, stands Russia now beginning to feel the deep chill of money blowing the other way.  It appears that they and most of the world forgot how dependent the Russian economy is upon foreign investment. The true engine of the Russian Economy is not oil and gas, but the money needed to exploit resources at home and abroad.
So much depends upon the willingness of bankers and creditors. So much depends on open arms in trade and on Wall Street. There is only so much money in selling arms all over the world, in the end it takes a lot of money to produce advanced weaponry.

There is a lesson in wisdom, that banking systems can fold a fragile national economy like a cheap Chinese fan, this is a better idea than a land war in Eastern Europe, it is a dollar war in cyberspace and on the floor of the Gulf of Mexico where they partner with Exxon for deep sea wells-- anywhere that Russia needs to be engaged in making profits.

The world is one step closer to finding resolve to handle a military dictatorship without a $trillion dollar invasion that only benefits the U.S. War machine. This is a grand bargain, peace at a price-- and on Mother's days yet to come, it will be a Grand Bargain.

Adaptation

The rapid adaptation to the Internet and the Smartphone has been demonstrated an advanced capacity for human adaptation.  Consider the small time periods involved for the development of the Internet. During the Clinton presidency, VP Al Gore headed a government task force to refine the concept, structure of the Information Super Highway. This was in about 1996. Here, in 2014, the internet has become a staple of business and social communication. It has been woven into the fabric of everyday life on a global basis. Similarly, the Smartphone, essentially introduced to mass markets in about 1997 although IBM’s Simon came in about 1992. Either way the adaptation has been incredible, there were 400,000 in 2010 and 900,000 in 2013, now more than 1 billion Smartphones in the world. Globally there are more than 5 billion mobile phones, of which 1.080 billion are Smartphones. This means that from 1997 when Kyocera went to a mass-market device to now. Some 17 years, we have added a billion Smartphones, 4 billion other mobile phones that can communicate and perform work through the internet.

Technology is not Adaptation—oh really?

Since the advent of man made fire, technology has been things that change and improve life, enhance chance of survival and in some form add to security and prosperity, human abundance. Since the Internet substantially affects most jobs and businesses in the US, Europe, and Asia, and soon will be the case in Africa; a case can be made that it has bee integrated into human survival. Would humans survive without them? Well yes, but that would be true of everything except food, air, and water. Necessities come from economic activity, which by working on the Net and accessing it by mobile device, qualify these adaptations as survival mechanisms.  Food and water production have become dependent upon the Internet. Increasingly, reliance has become so thorough that without them, life would be severely degraded and there would indeed be casualties.

Advanced Adaptation Will Be Needed For Survival

Climate changes, political and military aggressions, shortages of energy, all have begun to have global connectivity. Adaptation on massive scales and in short periods will be necessary. A world-wide system for dispute resolution is need3ed to avoid human decimation by war, disease, and famine. The world is on the verge of catastrophic levels of conflict now in Koreas, Israel, and now Ukraine.

Energy production has reached a stage of direct poisoning of air and water not seen since the industrial era- fracking will continue to take lives, research has shown nuclear power contaminates air and water with its wastes, as well as accidents - Fukishima radiation has crossed the Pacific from Japan to California. Rising sea levels and weather changes have begun to reshape human habitats and food supplies.